Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The Malay Voter: What he thinks of politicians, of BN and PR, and of PRU13, etc

A blogger's survey. Nobisha's on-line survey involves 1,383 Malay respondents, interesting since a lot of surveys are happy with a smaller sample size. Some 70 per cent of Nobisha's respondents are below 40, eight out of 10 are male and more than half have obtained degrees.

The findings are even more interesting.

Do these Malay voters think their MPs, both from Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat, are doing their job?
YES             23.8%
UNSURE     24.6%
NO               51.6%

Have UMNO's reforms improved the party?
YES             35.9%
UNSURE     20.4%
NO               43.7%

Has PR fulfilled their expectations?
YES              24%
UNSURE      27.9%
NO                48.1%
Who do they think will form the next government after PRU13, BN or PR?
 Find out H E R E. 

24 comments:

ExPet said...

The survey is skewed because 90% of visitors to nobisha's blog are Umno supporters. Nobisha and his blog are almost unknown among Pakatan supporters. What if Malaysia-Today (Raja Petra) runs a survey at his blog? We will see the opposite result.

Anonymous said...

Who do they think will form the next government after PRU13, BN or PR?
Find out H E R E.

Hello bruder, when I click HERE all I get is a photo of an UGLY guy and some jibberish. We want result LAH, who will win.

Its me Boss

Anonymous said...

Thats the way to go, just focus on opinions of Malays. No need to include the Bumiputras of East Malaysia in such surveys.

After all the East Malaysians are there just to justify enlarging the pie so that UMNO folks can have a go at a bigger share and not leave anything for the East Malaysians.

Nobisha is behind time, and still thinking that its only the Malays of Semenanjung who will decide who governs.

There are 57 MP seats in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan but its unlikely that the survey included the 'kingmakers' of these East Malaysian states.

No wonder the East Malaysians are getting fed up with everything and anything that is confined to 'Malay'.

What 1Malaysia is this lah?

PARAMESWARA

Paddy said...

I have to agree with ExPet that the sample is restricted mostly to those who visit his website, even if the survey was indeed "disebarkan melalui media sosial", one could assume that these respondents are linked the the former.

Regardless, i think that "kajian ini sampai kepada penyokong kedua-dua belah pagar politik" is false and misleading. Even if the websites i visit tend to support the opposition, I have never even heard of this survey until now.

Although i think there silver linings for PKR, 33.2% that think that PKR will win PR13 should be taken as a positive given the sample.

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y said...

the poll study said >>
URL soalan kajian disebarkan melalui media sosial (Facebook, blog, dan Twitter), forum, emel dan mailing list (Yahoogroups).

Usaha-usaha telah dilakukan bagi membolehkan URL kajian ini sampai kepada penyokong kedua-dua belah pagar politik (BN & PR) dan kelompok atas pagar.

Interesting survey though..but did not see 'usaha' in MT, MI or any pro=opposition blog...and I think the question could have been better asked.

If u see the 43.7% > NO (have umno improved the party) and 48.1% > NO (Has PR fulfilled their expectations)....its overly simplified.

What would the data show if one asked "Ada kah BN menghalang Pakatan Rakyat untuk memenuhi harapan pengundi"...or 'Have u seen PR politicians or its agenda in your local TV or newspaper' ---and was it a positive or negative news for PK....

kingnek said...

If both UMNO and PAS do not want to unite, the Perkasa guys will force them on the table to unite!

Anonymous said...

Latuk Locky,

My opinion is that the study is quite reflective of the current political sentiments. Irrespective of whether the result do/don't meet my expectation, i have to learn to accept that this (on-line survey) will be a kind of political guide/reference for any of us in future. For any findings, emotion put aside, the correct thing to do is to make appropriate adjustment but not blindly reject everything just because it fails you. Any how, political landscap might one day change and it can either be on any side -- positive/negative. But one thing will remain as it is – the constitution.

Padlock Home

Anonymous said...

Dear Rocky,

You seem to have left out the most important findings;

Only 56.5% of Malays are satisfied with the PM, in contrast to 72% of MALAYSIANS. The latter point harped on in your previous posting;

http://rockybru.com.my/2010/06/najibs-more-pop-but-people-are-still.html

The conclusion? More Non-Malays are satisfied with the PM than Malays.

What doesn't this tell you about the state of leadership in UMNO?

Anonymous said...

Saya berpendapat bahawa kajian itu tidak tetap malah berat sebalah memandangkaan peserta kajian adalah terdiri pengikut setia nobisha.Semua kita tahu bahawa Nibisha adalah penyokong setia kerajaan maka mahu tidak mahu hasil kajaim itu menyebelahi kerajaan.Saya mahu kerjaan sekarang kekal pada PRU akan datang tetapi je;as lagi terang bahawa cabarannya sangat sengit untuk BN mengekalkan kuasa lebih 50 tahun diterajuinya. Senario dan landskap politik semasa banyak berubah maalah sampai masanyaa satu perubahan baru yang drastik akan berlaku.Cerdik pandai dan jumalh celik huruf bertambah berlipat kali, maka pemikran mereka juga amat sukar dibaca dan ianallisakan. Jika BN dapat kekalkan jumlah kersuri yaang dimenangi pada PRU lepas, amat baik tetapi rata-rata kajian dibuat dan opandangan umum menunjukkan sokong terhadap BN merosot setiap hari. Bajet 2011 satu petahnda baru nasib BN, jika digubal dengan baik iaitu, banyak memberi manfaat kepada rakyat bawahan, meringgankan cengkaman ekonomi rakyat dan berjaya menjernihkan kembali platform kaum majoriti, harapan BN untuk kekal berkuasa mungkin berhasil. Jika tidak, jawabnya satu sejarah negara akan terukir melihat Bn mernduduki kerusi pembangkan buat pertama kali sejak merdeka 1957. Saya secara berani dan berterus terang mengatakan bahawa PRU13 akan melihatkan penggundi tegar BN akan merosot terutam kawasan-kawasan majoriti Melayu yang ditandingi oleh komponen BN bukan UMNO. Kawasan-kawasan bandar sukar bagi BN mempertahakan atau merampawskan kembali yang ditewaskan oleh pihak lawan pada PRU lepas. Tali hayat BN di Sabah dan Sarawak juga tergugat. Tiga lagi kerajaan negeri== Negeri Sembilan, Teranganu dan Perak juga akan tumbang jika seuatu tidak dilaku segera. Empat kerajaan negeri -Kelantan, Kedah, Pulau Pinang dan Selangor, akan terus akan diterajui oleh Pakatan Rakyat dengan majoriti yang bertambah. Johor dan Pahang akan melihat jumlah kerusi BN akan meleset manakal Sarawak dan Sabah akan melihat beberap lagi kerusi DUN akan dikuasai oleh Pembangkang. Mahu tidak mahu BN kena meneri hakikat ini dan mesti berani dan sanggup berubah. Penumpang dan kayu mati mesti digugurkan segera. Perasuah diambil tindakan, pengampu, pembodek dihalau segera. Muak-mukla baru diketengahkan. Menteri-menteri bertaraf Senator digugurkan. Pembersihan dalaman parti mesti dikenakan serta merta.
Jika semua ini dilakukan, saya yakin BN mampu menubuhkan kerajaan "simple majoriti" pada PRU akan datang. Isyallah.

Anak Malaysia

Anonymous said...

PARAMESWARA

Hang duk East Malaysia ke yang tau sangat what they feel? They Bumis there finally dapat rasa progress when BN went in..

Kau tau tak yang duk mengeloh tu APEK2 yang hijrah pi sana and all those years, manipulated all the locals and treated them like dogs, while they themselves lived like big lords..paying a maid RM3 per full days work!

Now the local Bumis kat sana dah cerdik2, APEK2 sana sekadar jadi big SHIT LORDS to the PATIs yang dah pandai mengAMOK, tak bayar gaji macam dulu, APEK kena serang, kebun kena bakar.......

PERWIRA

PERWIRA

J.Choo said...

Why are all these commenters not using their brains? It was stated already that the samples were only taken from 1300 plus people.

Of course, there is no such thing as a perfect survey, except for when a vote is casted in general election, then only it will show the effect.

Of course, when you go to RPK's survey, you will see 100% vote to PR because most who read his piece support PR. In fact, I could just reboot my modem (so that my dynamic IP changes) a hundred times and still vote PR and therefore the extra 100 votes for PR.

Even if the survey is done offline, and the surveyor happens to be surveying to a group delegates that attend a PAS muktamar too, you will see a 100% vote to PR.

Same case for BN sides too. Just giving an analogy.

Of course, Nobisha is expecting each of those who take up the survey would as honest as he/she could be. And of course, the survey was summarized by assuming that everyone was being honest to themselves.

That's the whole point.

eddy said...

Bro, In any GE, I think the key to victory is still the majority Malay/Bumi votes. In that if BN keeps their formula of putting MCA/Gerakan or MIC candidates in Malay majority areas atas dasar muafakat, with the current politicising being played up on issues such as the special position of the Malays in the Perlembagaan and Malays being called racist for even speaking up for their rights I think this muafakat thinghy would not work in the next GE13 and the BN non-Malay candidate will likely lose.

This BN muafakat strategy is suicidal under present circumstances and will only be advantageous to the Pakatan who will in all likelihood put candidates relevant to the majority of the particular constituent, do not be fooled by their multiracial front, this is not being racist real politik dictates that to win Pakatan will not go the muafakat way, the DAP would not certainly change their candidates with PAS or PKR in their sure win constituency. Theresa Kok did not win with the biggest majority in Seputeh in the last election for nothing.

Next GE13 is a do or die for BN and obviously their best chance to win even with a simple majority is to win the rural and semi-urban seats strongly. If they lose the rural and semi-urban seats then its bye-bye Government and hello opposition for the BN.

So BN component parties have to make sacrifices in the Peninsular, MCA and Gerakan to match with DAP, MIC to match with PKR with UMNO matching in all the rural constituent where the Malays are a majority. In Sabah and Sarawak things are different as I think race is not much of an issue, they have been 1Malaysia for a long time, just hope penyakit politik divide in the peninsular tidak menular ke Sabah dan Sarawak sudah, I think BN will win there comfortably with probably the DAP gaining a bit of ground in the urban areas.

Its now all up to the BN leaders, they have to make and accept tough choices for the GE13. They have no other choice.

After the GE13 then they will have to relook at the whole BN concept maybe even merging all the parties in the BN into one entity, that will be finally the way forward for this multiracial and multi religious entity and finally accept UMNO's founding President Dato' Onn Jaafar idea of Malaysian of all races under one party....no more BN but change to UNITED MALAYSIAN NATIONAL ORGANISATION.

Tuan Tanah Melayu said...

Expet,
How do you know that Nobisha's blog is unknown to Pakatan Supporters, and yet you can say it's 90% visitors are UMNO supporters.

This is the case of ludicrous thinking, common among PR supporters. You claim, the blog is unknown to PR supporters and yet you can point out precisely 90% of the visitors are UMNO. Perhaps, you guys are very much influence by the unsubstantiated Pornthip 80%theory.

And stupid statement "if Malaysia-Today runs a survey it would be opposite" Opposite of what???

Please do not insult our intelligent la. Now the whole world knows PR supporters are full of stupid, ludicrous, stinking thinking beings of Expet and the likes...

Puppet (PARASMEWARA + EXPET) said...

If the survey is done by MT, the result is not `opposite' but 100% sure it's for PR. And you know why? You can laugh or cry or perhaps feel stupid about the survey findings later.

Anonymous said...

Anak Malaysia,

Pity you write so long but no para. I like to read but so cluttered looking. Wonder who reads such long, one-para comments. Why not you para them? Ishows clear thinking if you do.

Btw, do you know what people do when they see long mail trains? They go by plane.

Anonymous said...

Cakap banyak2 buat ape ? Just call for PRU13 and see what happens lah.....all we can see is that BN doesn't even dare call for state elections in Sarawak....scared of losing its fixed deposit ?

Godfather

Anonymous said...

1. The rot of UMNO started when UMNO lama was deregistered and TDM didnt use his power as menteri dalam negeri under the relevant society act to revive it.

3. instead he registered his own version of UMNO i.e UMNO(Baru) where he was able to control fully thus he can ensure that will not be challanged forever.

Along the way he introdued so many measures to ensure he wont be challanged thus tranformed his UMNO(Baru) to a new creature totally different from UMNO that our fathers were members.

4. After he created his own UMNO, he then embarked on one very important excercise to consolidate his power i.e pindaan immunity raja-raja. With our raja and sultan powers being curtailed, he had ammased all the power unto himself.

the way is see it, dengan pindaan tersebut, tida lagi halangan kuasa yang boleh check tindakannya. The rest is history.

5. Another point yang perlu kita hayati adalah tentang kemasukan UMNO(Baru) ke sabah.

Keputusan membawa UMNO(Baru) ke sabah adalah ekoran keputusan pru 1990 dimana TDM nampak bahawa sokongan orag melayu di semenanjung mula menunjukkan swing dari menyokong UMNO(Baru).

Dengan membawa UMNO(Baru) ke sabah dengan created banyak kerusi parlimen disana, TDM teah mencipta fixed deposit untuk UMNO(Baru) mengekalkan kuasa.Kita lihat bagaimana fixed deposit ini menyelamatkan UMNO(Baru) dan BN dalam PRU 12 yang lalu.

5. Datu fakta yang sering cuba dilupakan oleh UMNO(Baru) mengenai kemasukannya ke sabah islah pindaan perlembagaannya mengenai keahlian UMNO(Baru).

Untuk membolehkan UMNO(Baru) masuk ke sabah, keahliannya telah dibuka
kepada semua BUMIPUTRA, sebagaimana ditakrifkan oleh perlembagaan.

Ini bermakna, semua bumiputra samada melayu atau bukan melayu, islam atau bukan islam bol3h menjadi ahli UMNO(Baru).

Jadi disabah, jika kita semak daftar terdapat ahli-ahli UMNO(Baru) dari kalangan bumiputra bukan melayu bukan islam.

6. Selepas kemasukan UMNO(Baru) ke sabah, UMNO(Baru) bukan lagi parti yang khusus untuk orang melayu 100%. Ia menjadi parti BUMIPUTRA! seperti parti PBB pimpinan taib mahmud di sarawak.

7. dengan memahami kedudukan perkara ini, tidaklah sukar untuk kita melihat arah perjuangan UMNO(Baru) sekarang ini. Tidak sukar untuk kita membaca tindakan-tindakan desperado UMNO(Baru) sekarang ini dalam usaha untuk mengekal sokongan aka kuasa hari ini.

bat8

Tra-la-la said...

I am a simple person living a simple life.
I will accept anyone to be my leader but not Anwar Ibrahim and zaid Ibrahim.

Anonymous said...

Parameswara,
Wah, suddenly so concerned about the others.Coming from a Chingkie ...this is bad news! But you should know better your apek towkays been calling the shots down there. Your kind have raped and plundered that land decades ago and we know who they are. Nowadays biz not so good ah, everything being checked, control and all. Apek cannot chop-chop timber, dig-hear-dig-there to hearts content. You missed the train ah, and now you are mad at the Malays..sob.. sob. Ah now I faham la.

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y said...

J.CHOO - We (I) am using our grey matter...and its not the sample size but whether its representative;

since the article did claim "Usaha-usaha telah dilakukan bagi membolehkan URL kajian ini sampai kepada penyokong kedua-dua belah pagar politik (BN & PR) dan kelompok atas pagar."

Jason said...

Whatever gomen, as long as no DAP and PKR, I will totally support. Cheers Rock..!!!

Anonymous said...

Pasca PRU-12, sentimen Melayu berubah sokong BN.

Kenapa?

PR terlalu bersifat perkauman, suka mengungkit isu sensitif termasuk hak istimewa Melayu dan Islam serta gagal menunaikan banyak janji-janji pilihanraya.

Parti komponen Melayu, PAS & PKR dilihat terlalu lemah untuk menyaingi DAP. Di mata orang Melayu, DAP adalah parti chauvinist Cina dan anti-Melayu serta Islam.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10.54 AM,

When they ungkit hak Melayu, we ungkit their citizenship right.

Those who want to get rid of Bumi housing discount and 30% Bumi equity, we ask them to surrender their citizenship la. They can stay here as Permanent Residents, what.

No two-way about it. One was the consideration for the other.

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y said...

D'rocky - a true online poll will be skewed towards the opposition...but it would not be representative of eligible voters....Think most are 50-50%.

So whats on KJ 'bold' statement on leaving UMNO?