Wednesday, August 14, 2013

For those who wetted their pants over Fitch, do read on

Updated, Thurs 15/8
A timely article for rubbing it in ...

Moody's has stable outlook on Malaysia's A3 sovereign rating
KUALA LUMPUR: Moody's Investors Service has a stable outlook on Malaysia's A3 sovereign rating which balances its relatively healthy growth outlook and still formidable foreign exchange reserve buffer against its susceptibility to external demand.
The international ratings agency said on Thursday following the implementation of countercyclical measures in the wake of the global financial crisis, fiscal and debt ratios worsened and have yet to recover to pre-crisis levels.
"Nevertheless, funding conditions have not been adversely affected, while the government's debt profile remains favourable as compared to peers," it said. 
Read the rest of the article  h e  r e



Original posting Wed 14/8





Excerpts:
"So, what happens if Fitch goes ahead and downgrades their rating for Malaysia during their next review? Honestly, I don’t think much will happen.
Remember, at “A-“ Malaysia is still well within the investment grade rating category. A downgrade to “BBB+” doesn’t change that. We’d need to go down another three notches to be classed as “speculative” i.e. junk. It’s hardly time to panic just yet.
Second, investors are all looking at the same data, so by the time Fitch gets around to revising their rating next year, it will be more in the nature of a fait accompli rather than presaging a round of investor sell-offs, i.e. a rating downgrade would probably lag, not lead, what happens in the capital markets.
Note that the selldown in the Ringgit and in the capital markets the last couple of weeks was part of a general investor retreat from emerging markets, not something specific to Malaysia per se. The Fitch news added a little push to the rush for the exit, but it wasn’t the trigger.
Lastly, while an actual downgrade to the rating should in theory make borrowing costs more expensive, there are many more factors that determine the yield the government has to pay on its borrowings. For example, the last time Fitch cut Malaysia’s rating (local currency only; February 2009) MGS yields did indeed rise, but to levels well below where they were six months earlier." - Hisham H, Aug 14

In my Aug 12 piece The difference between Fitch and bitch, I argue the need for us to be circumspect when faced with rating agencies' behaviour. I was also bitching about the fact that none of our economists or politicians seemed bothered to come to the Malaysian economy's defence. Today, I welcome back blogging economist Hisham H from his hiatus with the timely The Fitch Rating Downgrade: Much Ado About Nothing.



54 comments:

GGK said...

Ah, yes - "emerging markets".

What a comforting phrase!

Maybe that's why 1 Singapore Dollar is worth 2.57 Ringgit!

I recall that Hisham was trying to unravel the intricacies of Singapore's finances and reserves. In effect, I think he said their numbers don't add up.

Of course, the warrior chimed in with links, references and unattributed conspiracy theories.

All of which makes you wonder why the rating agencies haven't cottoned on to this yet.

Surely, their collective intellectual horsepower could easily solve the mystery and the reported discrepancies, could they not?

But when one is rated A- (with negative implications) and the other is rated Triple-A, there's room for a whole lot of angst.

Anonymous said...

Hahaha, Latuk Locky, when your masters go down on their knees and beg Singapore for financial assistance, then we shall see if it is much ado about nothing. When the Jews at the IMF come a-calling to insist on certain fiscal policies, we shall see if it is much ado about nothing.

When sovereign borrowing costs go up by 1 pct p.a. on account of a rating downgrade, just calculate the additional burden to the taxpayer. 1 pct p.a. on 600 billion of debt is 6 billion p.a. Just in case a journalist like you don't know how to count.

Much ado about nothing, you say ?

Zheng Ho Abdullah

Anonymous said...

Datuk: Who are the people wetting their pants ?

1. Not the UMNO elite, since they have stashed so much in places like London, Sydney, Melbourne, Singapore.

2. Not the rich chinamen since they already have invested in overseas properties, and opened bank accounts in Singapore and Australia.

3. Not the hardcore poor, since they don't know what the hell ratings mean.

4. Not the underground economy since there'll be more bankruptcies and more assets to launder.

The ones to wet their pants will be the civil servants whose incomes rise 5 pct a year, when inflation will be closer to 10 pct a year. These are the people who call the Ah Longs from the posters on every wall. Instead of paying 2 % of interest a month, these poor souls will be paying 3 % a month.

Then the Malaysia Spring will happen.

charleskiwi said...

It is for these reasons why Malaysia is down where Malaysia is, especially so when the country are filled with people like you. Do you wait till when you are downgraded further or downgraded to the the brink of bankruptcy before you take frugal actions in the country's finance is in a shamble ?
Have you and the people in Umno, the people you are backing, have never heard of, save for the rainy days that are ahead ? Pleas blog and write without fear and favour.

Anonymous said...

Recall the enron debacle
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-tosses-the-enron-standard-at-us-debt-2011-08-08

Also the criticism our country received when we imposed capital exchange to counter the 1997 exchange rate recession.
We also received criticism when we saved banks, big companies and jobs in the same recession.

Hmmm...

Anonymous said...

I wonder why GGK is wetting his pants over nothing and bringing me (Warrior) into the equation.

1. To say a US agency is an unattributed link is bordering on madness. Not surprising for the GGK who lives detached from reality, anyway.Quite surprising too that the poor id-confused bastard is resorting to acronyms in place of its usual Petronius, Jasper Bloodstone, Sampahfi, Skillgannon and sundry other garbagey nicks.

So here is the unattributed link for everyone to check out and take it up with the relevant agency as mentioned (with facts and data in hand of course):

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/204280.pdf
(refer page 38)

2. Now about RAs, I think i have been pretty leery of them in HishamH (Hisham does not agree with me on this) as are the US Treasury, the EU and many others elsewhere. Here are two links to prove my point that RAs are essentially laggards and downright careless when rating sovereigns (and I stress "sovereigns):


a.Contrary to public opinion and more or less in accordance with the previous literature, the paper finds that the agencies’ sovereign ratings – the paper does not deal with ratings of securities or banks – follow the market rather than lead it, that their bias tends towards the optimistic side, and that they are clearly exposed to the characteristic forecasting
errors: pro-cyclicality, turning-point mistakes, underestimation of changes and incapacity to deal with surprises
(shocks).

www.intereconomics.eu/downloads/getfile.php?id=789

b."Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple benchmark model with standard macroeconomic variables."
http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT-396_01.pdf

Now I am sure GGK has the vaunted intellectual capacity to debunk Tichy and Matthieu and Annuka who are dealing with real world data by the way.I am sure they will welcome GGK's brilliant inputs to the debate.


So given all that and more, I wouldnt give a damn over a mere change in outlook NOT even ratings per se.

But of course, data proves that when it comes to bank ratings RAs are mostly spot on, so this will be troubling:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/moodys-downgrades-singapore-banking-system-negative-041737591.html

as will be this from a loans/debt growth perspective:

http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/chart-day-heres-proof-singapores-loan-growth-outstripped-nominal-gdp-8-times

3. S$1=2.57

Heard this garbage many times before from wannabes who look at the numbers and go gaga and googoo. You know the idiot types who dont understand what is PPP or floating or peg regimes or stuff like that. Yeah, the same stupid types who are fooled by the illusion of knowing when they really don't know cos they are simply stupid.

Well why dont we say that the Singapig is crumbling as the SGD is dropping against the US dollar:

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130731/usdsgd-higher-unemployment-rate-sinks-sgd/

4. Triple A = Heard this recycled tripe too many times already. Yeah the US, Japan suffered the ignominy of ratings downgrades (losing triple A) in 2011 and have been declared bankrupt pariahs for their shredded finances. Go figure that out GGK as fuck your mother.

I guess GGK has got a chip on his shoulder for being born an idiot to a whore. So he must mention me to give his existence meaning or else his world will be upended no end. Sad, isnt it when you dont have much of a life and the only semblance of it lies in typing missives berating others for no reason while cocooned in one's angst ridden shitty delusional reality.

Warrior 231


Anonymous said...

Azeez Rahim patut disingkirkan atau dia sendiri letak jawatan sebagai pengerusi Tabung Haji . Tanda-tanda sakauan bermula apabila gaji dinaikkan bagi anak syarikat Tabung Haji yang tak buat untung dekat Arab Saudi iaitu TH Real Estate Company (TH RE) yang telah ditubuhkan pada 2009. Pasti pihak media ingin tahu mengapa TH Real Estate Company yang masih tidak mampu memberi sebarang pendapatan (zero revenue) perlu menghabiskan SR2.5 juta setahun untuk kos gaji dan elaun pekerja yang hanya 5 orang sahaja (1 CEO, 2 orang pekerja Malaysia dan 2 pekerja Arab)? Pihak media pasti ingin tahu benarkah gaji CEO TH Real Estate telah dinaikkan dari RM30k sebulan ke RM70k sebulan? Takkan nak diam je kott??? Jangan dibiar lama2 , duit rakyat tuuu

Anonymous said...

GGK the Pig: "I recall that Hisham was trying to unravel the intricacies of Singapore's finances and reserves"

I think GGK means things like these

1.http://www.baldingsworld.com/2013/08/01/one-of-the-many-things-i-dont-understand-about-temasek/

2. http://www.baldingsworld.com/2013/07/08/the-temasek-illusion/

and many more which anyone can browse at their leaisure in that blog. By the way, the professor has invited Lee to coffee in Changi. Lets see if Lee has the balls:

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2013/08/07/invitation-to-a-cup-of-coffee/

3. Elsewhere, super efficient Singapore's SMRT recorded its first loss, something already predicted in advance here:

http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/smrt-possibility-of-even-lower-dividends-in-future/

In any case, the loss has indeed materialised and a bleak assessment follows:

The new reality is that SMRT is only an S$90-110m profit business: And even all of this profit would be delivered by its non-core business of “rental and advertisement”. Its core businesses – Rail, Bus and Taxi – will hardly make any profit in our view.

http://business.asiaone.com/news/smrts-q1-profit-dives-55-16m/page/0/1

http://singaporestockmarketnews.blogspot.com/2013/07/smrt-corporation-finding-silver-bullet.html

I dunno but some swine probably used the maintenance money for dividends and to line pockets at the expense of commuter safety:

http://business.asiaone.com/news/big-chunk-ex-ceos-shares-smrt-forfeited

so cue the entry of another pig who suggests how to make a bad situation look good, Chingkie pigfarm style:

http://sbr.com.sg/media-marketing/commentary/how-smrt-can-actually-change-its-losing-narrative

Hardly a week later, this kelingkiak quits, probably flabbergasted at how low can her Chingkie pig bosses will stoop to fuck her brown cunt:

http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/spokesman-smrt-quits-5-months-job-0

mmmm...it will end up in a bailout (hey dont mention that word Warrior, GGK will flip!!) with stupid commuters like GGK picking the tab in true piggy patriotic pride.

3. Another place,another failure, another day on Orwell's pig farm:

http://sbr.com.sg/hotels-tourism/exclusive/singapore-flyer-placed-under-receivership-what-went-wrong

hey, who gives a pig-arse to all these conspiracy theories, alternate realities etc ...eh GGK the Swine cocksucker. Atta boy, time to lick Harry's pigarse.?

Warrior 231






Anonymous said...

This is typical Malay mentality, syok sendiri jaguh kampong syndrome. Your opinion on the rating agency maybe correct but the fact that 1 Singapore dollar worth RM2.60 means on the ground the ringgit worth much less. You may bitch about the rating agency but if Malaysia is still using their economy rule, you have to play along unless you want to learn from Iran

Once A coolie said...

"1 Singapore dollar worth RM2.60 means on the ground the ringgit worth much less. "

This is typical Cina mentality trying to make themselves real good when you can easily google to read that Chinese Singaporean buying power is the same if not less than Kuala Lumpur muahaha..

Everything is more expensive on the island ma..so 2.60 can buy the same what RM1 can buy in KL where thing are cheaper.

Once a coolie always a coolie..

Anonymous said...

Ini yang Madey impikan,,!!! Ringgit Malaysia macam DUIT zaman JOPON,,!!!

Bayangkan SYARIKAT gergasi yang ada EXTERNAL Debt,,,jadi KAYAP syarikat itu hendak membayar OTANG,,!!!

-BODO2-

Anonymous said...

Sigh....I should have told you to just forget about Fitch and all. After all, stupid people will remain stupid people and no amount of information or knowledge is gonna cure their stupidity. Plus, sadly, stupidity cannot be legislated away.

Lets use the logic of el stupidoes for a change to show what I mean.

SGD 1 = MYR 2.60. Singapork solid Triple A rated economy. Singapork vely vely stlong economy, wan, Malaisee nothing mah.

KYD 1 = SGD 1.55. But Cayman island is not even a triple A , only an AA2.:

http://www.compasscayman.com/story.aspx?id=117290

How come the currency value higher, mah? Now what ah? Wah liau, Cayman Island stlonger economy than Singapig, wow! Singapig got big ploblem oh........

Get my drift as to where el stupido brings you.

That is why rational commenting differs substantially from the hantam keromo uneducated, ill informed, stupid verbiage that passes itself as some enlightened insight here and elsewhere. It is a genetic and cultural thing inherited from their whore and pimp ancestors.

Only the ignorant, the stupid, the foolish indulge in hentam keromo because they can't help being their stupid selves. So your efforts to educate them, Bru is doomed to failure.

And worse, arguing with facts is a big no no as they will rat arse or pig arse you. For in their world, it is comfortable and better to remain stupid and ignorant than be informed and have all that information splinter their stupid brains..

So it would be better to swig tequila on the rocks than wasting time entertaining these idiots. Most probably, they are jobless trolls earning a few cents for their next meal for every garbage they peddle.

P/s: for those interested to know more, go here

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/apr/30/credit-ratings-country-fitch-moodys-standard

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Anon 8.38

You are right man but they are too stupid to understand. How can they when they do not know what PPP is? In their whore inherited brains PPP stands for Pundek Puki Palat....hahaha

As the wise would say, once a whore's kid always a whore's kid.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Rocky,

Muhammad Nedim Nazri, who was previously in the spotlight over an assault incident involving a security guard, seems to be courting controversy again, this time at his father's ministry. According to the Ministry of Tourism and Culture website, Nedim has been appointed 'special officer' at the ministry.(No 9 on the list). Now everyone can get hired!

Minister Office
Level 18,
No. 2, Tower 1, Jalan P5/6,
Precinct 5
62200 PUTRAJAYA
Tel: 03 8891 7000 Fax: 03 8891 7011

1 YB Dato' Seri Mohamed Nazri bin Abdul Aziz
Menteri Pelancongan dan Kebudayaan Malaysia
mohamednazri@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7001
2 Y. Bhg. Dato' Mohamed Ismail bin Mohamed Othman
Setiausaha Politik
mohamed.ismail@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7010
3 Y. Bhg. Dato' Azlinda binti Mohd Rashad
Setiausaha Sulit Kanan
azlinda@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7006
4 Suzana Akmam binti Selamat Amir
Pegawai Tugas-Tugas Khas
suzana@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7015
5 Hashim bin Mohamed
Pegawai Khas KPI
hashim.mohamed@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7017
6 Ahmad Fazli bin Ahamad Nordin
Setiausaha Akhbar
ahmadfazli@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7009
7 Dr. Jurij Jalaludin
Setiausaha Sulit
jurij@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7013
8 Nedim bin Nazri Aziz
Pegawai Khas
nednazri@motac.gov.my
03 8891 7008

Anonymous said...

Ya your Johore gov is basically too happy and begging te Singaporean to come in truckload to buy the johorean properties.

Anonymous said...

What the fuck? Dia ingat daddy ministry ke ni? Ooi. Come on Warrior 231. Jangan asyik hentam Cinapukimak dan Keling. Macam mana nak sokong UMNO ni? Senang je dia letak anak dia kat Government. Betul-betul meluat.

Hampa dan hamba

Anonymous said...

Based on historical data, can you let me know when was M'sia had 8% to 10% inflation rate.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11.59

I dah lama kata manusia ini memang tak guno dari dulu lagi masa dia kutuk Tun Dr M dulu.. Aku dah bagi tau dah malaun ini ular sawo besar, kena buang jauh, tali barut pembangkang, bikin malu aje pada UMNO dan Melayu secara umum.

Tapi nak wat macam mana, botak tua perut boroi suka kat dia. Kan dua2 sama2 botak.....hahaha. Kalau nak buang malaun macam ni kena buong ketua dia dalam undi UMNO. Baru malaun ni dan sewaktu dengannya lesap dan UMNO boleh bertoi2 jaga kepentingan Melayu Islam seperti dalam perlembagaannya. Kalau tak ubah jugak, PRU 14, kita Melayu pakat2 tak keluar undi, lantak gi aje lah, nak wat macae mano.

Aku bukan hantam cino ke Keling ikut sedap mulut. Aku pakai fakta.

Aku nak kata kat depa jangan nak burukkan bangsa atau agama aku kalau sendiri tak betul, kalau sendiri punya bangsa/agama pun tak hebat mana, jangan nak jaga tepi kain oghe lain. Bersih pungguk sendiri dulu sebelum nak ajaq oghe lain, kalau tak samalah macam pelesit tak guno. Baik diam dari dok teriaq macae oghe gila.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

So you are one of those too blind to see reality and are accepting official statistics of 3-4% inflation. Go back to your tempurung. Ignorance is bliss.

Anonymous said...

The Only Person Wetting his Pants is YOU!

For Everybody else it is as per NORMAL.

Rating Agencies will keep doing their job even if Rocky Keeps Wetting his Pants over them!

MAHARAJATHIR said...

Tak payah peduli...
Malaysia ada manyak-manyak duit, apa nama, Tabung Haji, KWSP dan Petron!

Janji Diketepi!!!

BERITA KARUT HARIAN said...

2012 GDP per capita: SGP usd55,100 vs. MAL usd10,500

Apa lagi Mahathir Mau boros dan bolot!???

Anonymous said...

To Once a coolie:
REF: "Everything is more expensive on the island ma...so $2.60 can buy the same what RM1 can buy in KL where thing are cheaper."

I'm really not sure about that at all, but I can tell you that a $5 plate of nasi campur in Singapore will cost RM5 in Kuala Lumpur (but more than that at the makmak restoran) So you can eat twice as much in KL for one serving in S'pore. Now, when it comes to owning a car it is an explosive incongruence. Let's see, the cost of a new car there = $70K (COE) + $30K (cheap car) = $100K
How many cars can a Malaysian buy with RM260,000? This is not "cina mentality" but the regurgitations of the corporate "Money Mind".
It's the Chinese who are complaining loudest in Singapore.
God save Malaysia.

hishamh said...

@GGK

"And if you decry the whole concept of ratings, then you should ask the Malaysian government to put it's money where it's mouth is and refuse to have it's bonds and sukuk rated. "

Actually, almost none of Malaysian government debt is rated, except for our international issuance of RM16 billion (less than 3% of the total).

The ratings agencies conduct sovereign ratings for Malaysia mainly to establish country-specific ceilings for corporate debt, not for the business they get from the government. Local government debt issuance is never rated, not by the local boys and not by the international agencies either.

@Zheng Ho Abdullah

"When sovereign borrowing costs go up by 1 pct p.a. on account of a rating downgrade, just calculate the additional burden to the taxpayer. 1 pct p.a. on 600 billion of debt is 6 billion p.a. Just in case a journalist like you don't know how to count."

Changes in credit conditions only effect new borrowings, not existing ones. Gross issuance (new + rollover of existing debt) is now running at about RM80-90 billion a year. The effect of a 1% overall increase in yields would thus only raise borrowing costs by less than RM1billion.

Also, borrowing costs and the burden of debt service are currently at historical lows at less than 10% of the operating budget, compared to over 25% in the 1980s and nearly 20% in the 1990s. A 1% increase wouldn't even bring current MGS yields back to Malaysia's long term average.

hishamh said...

@warrior 231

Salam raya warrior, hope you had a good pilgrimage.

I'm currently doing a full blown statistical study of the major rating agencies sovereign ratings. I've only tabulated Moody's at the moment, and while there's general evidence of rating accuracy, there's also occasionally considerable variance relative to macroeconomic numbers (one or two ratings notches too high or low), particularly for developing countries. There's very little rating error, for example, for the US or Germany.

It's too soon to make any conclusions, but I'll certainly do a post once the study is done.

Singapore, you might be interested to know, is over-rated at least a notch based on the variables I have so far.

Anonymous said...

Warrior 231,

I salute you! Tabik springggg!

Anonymous said...

how did RA rate subprime AAA+ prior to crash?

Anonymous said...

Rocky

Here Star story

Moody's has stable outlook on Malaysia's A3 sovereign rating

KUALA LUMPUR: Moody's Investors Service has a stable outlook on Malaysia's A3 sovereign rating which balances its relatively healthy growth outlook and still formidable foreign exchange reserve buffer against its susceptibility to external demand.

The international ratings agency said on Thursday following the implementation of countercyclical measures in the wake of the global financial crisis, fiscal and debt ratios worsened and have yet to recover to pre-crisis levels.

"Nevertheless, funding conditions have not been adversely affected, while the government's debt profile remains favourable as compared to peers," it said.

In January 2013, Moody's readjusted the country ceilings for Malaysia based on its assessment of moratorium risks given the country's ability and perceived willingness to service both its public and private cross-border debt obligations.

"Malaysia's long-term foreign currency (FC) bond ceiling was thus raised to A1 from A3, while its long-term FC deposit ceiling remains unchanged at A3. The short-term FC bond and deposit ceilings also remain unchanged at P-1," it said.

In its rating rationale, it said Malaysia's A3 government bond rating was based on its methodological assessment of moderate economic resiliency, supported by a highly open, medium-sized economy and a well-diversified external sector.

Moody's stated that however, economic growth has been relatively dependent on public-sector expenditure.

Although Malaysia's per capita income is lower than most rating peers, its indicators of governance, regulatory quality, and competitiveness are better than similarly rated countries.

"The high degree of government financial strength is underpinned by the country's strong external position and high savings rates as compared to peers.

"The latter provides a substantial local currency and largely domestic source of financing for the fiscal deficit and government debt -- both of which, however, are higher than at comparably rated peers," it said.

Moody's said in particular, Malaysia's large stock of foreign exchange reserves provides a buffer against exogenous shocks that could otherwise undermine government finances.

The ratings agency pointed out that extensive price administration and low private investment have necessitated greater government spending on subsidies and infrastructure.

Malaysia's fiscal framework has grown more dependent on commodity revenues in the absence of broad tax reform. These developments have raised structural pressures.

It pointed out the authorities have the institutional capabilities for advancing reforms, however, political willingness has been lacking.

"Nonetheless, high fiscal financing requirements will be supported by a large pool of domestic savings, a liquid domestic investor base, and a strong net external creditor position.

"Malaysia has strong and well-managed corporate and banking sectors; and its state-owned enterprises are undergoing reform. As a result, the sovereign's exposure to contingent liabilities is quite low. Contentious domestic politics have slowed policy reform, but is unlikely to result in widespread instability," it said.

Anonymous said...

So please provide your fact and data to prove that we have 8% to 10% yearly inflation rate. Simple example will do since hang tak buta.......mana punya sekolah la mangkuk ni belajar. Tu pun gagah nak post comment.

Anonymous said...

Apa lagi Cina mau????

Melayu: Mau semua sekolah Cina kasi buang. Invest more on scholarships to Malays and make all Sekolah Kebangsaan to be world class.

Anonymous said...

Errr,

Rocky Everyone have moved past this Issue yang dah Basi.

Borriiinngggg.

Jangan lah sampai terkencing dalam seluar pasal hal ini.

Anonymous said...

Forget about Fitch Datuk, just look at the (real) numbers and give your (honest) opinion on the state of our economy - and tell us that we have nothing to worry about.

Arthur And erson said...

Some Malaysians are ignorant about US Sub-prime crisis... obviously and conveniently!

Anonymous said...

Thanks Hisham H. It was a very welcome break indeed.

Your attempt at evaluating the consistency and the congruence of ratings, outlooks etc is indeed laudable but I am afraid ultimately doomed. Why? Here are two possible reasons.

Firstly, those in the know acknowledge that ratings are primarily used to gauge Sovereign Risk Default (SRD) among others ( see page 4 of Moody's Rating Methodology : Sovereign Bond Rating, New York, 2008).

Essentially, SRD is also linked to the tolerability of the political dimension to withstand the financial/costs adjustments required in order avoid default. Hence SRD can be defined as being somewhat directly proportionate to tolerability i.e. the lower the tolerability the higher the SRD and vice versa.

And pray what is tolerability? It refers to tolerance to implications of measures requisite to avoid SRD. Bear in mind that these measures are capable of generating social costs when implemented. In other words, political will, public consent, and consensus of the polity are paramount to see through the measures. To put it simply, we are looking at qualitative factors when we talk about 'tolerability' as a variable as the level of tolerability is shaped differently in different countries according to different socio-political configurations.

Example : Lets say China is in the same situation as Malaysia as per the relevant quantitative ratings parameters. Lets assume that both are 'A-' but with differing outlooks i.e., China being tagged 'stable' and Malaysia being 'negative'. But then how is this possible? Because to regain its financial 'credibility' , the Chinese government is perceived to be more likely to bulldoze through measures such as expenditure cutbacks, subsidy removal, a hike in consumption taxes etc and they won't give a damn about the social costs while doing so. Anyone protesting would be simply gunned down and thrown to the dogs ( the best way to manage unreasonable dissent, if you ask me).

Now, the same cannot be done in Malaysia simply because we have a weak leader leading a weak government, post GE 13. Unfortunately, we are also a democrazy. a democracy that is fractious and polemical as any democrazies would be, if I may add.

Hence, a RA like Fitch is more liable to give a better outlook for China than Malaysia, going forward although both countries are in similar situations.

The above hypothetical example illustrates a basic flaw in ratings assessment i.e., the use of a utilitarian risk calculus to quantify essentially qualitative socio- political risks. That partially explains why RAs frequently get their ratings in a tizzy, just as we now witnessing the difference between Fitch and Moody .

So the Fitch exercise should be seen as nothing more than a misplaced attempt at risk quantification of essentially qualitative political measures. It is more a political indictment than a financial one. That is why the A- is maintained but the outlook is degraded.

For going forward Fitch cannot see Najib effecting reforms given the effects of the Chingkie treachery and Malay disunity in GE 13. Now if Najib is thrown out and replaced by a benevolent dictator, lets say like me, who is willing to bear the social costs, Fitch will immediately switch the outlook to 'stable', or even 'positive'.

Little wonder why Najib released a statement that the issues raised will be addressed by budget 2014 - an instinctive reaction to assuage Fitch’s concerns.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Part 2

Secondly, as this paper points out, RA ratings have little predictive accuracy:

http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT-396_01.pdf

I think the contents are self explanatory and need not resort to a long winded treatise to get the point across.

Given these caveats, I doubt whether you will actually be able to gauge the accuracy of ratings and outlooks. It's worth a try though and would be interesting fodder for contemplation. As for the Singapore thingy, I am not surprised in the least though I have a pretty solid reason why triple A is assigned. More of that elsewhere

P/s 1: A point of ancillary interest, Rinehart in her analysis of links between currency crises and defaults noted that RAs have generally ignored the inclusion of several important variables in the methodology

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/30/rating-the-credit-raters/?_r=0

P/s 2: For the anon (3.58pm) who raised the issue of subprime rating, maybe you should look at this

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/23/standard-poors-puffery_n_3139134.html

In short we have been ‘had’. Need I say more?

p/s : And for those who invest a lot of stock and hot air in the dirty world of ratings, enjoy:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/credit-rating-agencies

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Totally agree.....kasi buang semau sekolah cinabeng!!!

Anonymous said...

Year in Year out, Malaysian currency is dropping in its value against all major currencies.

Rocky can talk rotten crabs all the times but the sad reality is that Malaysia is slowly sinking down to abyss.

ABU

Anonymous said...

"now if Najib is thrown out and replaced by a benevolent dictator, lets say like me, who is willing to bear the social costs, Fitch will immediately switch the outlook to 'stable', or even 'positive'. "

Hahahahahahahaha!!

More likely they will switch it to the same ratings they give to basket case banana republics in Africa. :)

If "benevolent dictatorships" bring good economic ratings we will see the majority of stable and vibrant economies worldwide being led by authoritarian governments. However the opposite is true, the majority of vibrant economies are actually located in democratic countries. Places where liberty allows businesses and ideas to thrive.

Anonymous said...

Hahahahahahaha

Chiang Kai Shek's Taiwan, Park Chung Hee's Korea, the CCP's China were and are not benevolent dictatorships. And Japan is a one party state

India, Argentina , Italy, Spain , Greece are bustling examples of the wonders of democracies. Add to that the UK, Ireland, Colombia and many of the thriving new democracies of Africa plus the winners of the Arab Spring plus Eastern Europeans like Hungary. Surely the wonders of democracies never cease.

As I said only in democrazies do el stupidoes thrive to spout garbage and bullshit for fifty cents per comment.

Warrior 231

The said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The said...

/// KYD 1 = SGD 1.55. But Cayman island is not even a triple A , only an AA2.:

http://www.compasscayman.com/story.aspx?id=117290

How come the currency value higher, mah? Now what ah? Wah liau, Cayman Island stlonger economy than Singapig, wow! Singapig got big ploblem oh........

Warrior 231
10:07 pm ///

It is not just the absolute exchange rate that matters. More importantly, it is the trend.

MYR used to be at parity with SGD. From SGD1=MYR1, now the ringgit has depreciated to MYR2.60 - that is the problem.

Similarly, the KYD used to be worth SGD1.90; now it is SGD1.55, so again the Cayman dollar has depreciated against the Sing Dollar.

If you just look at the absolute exchange rates, are you suggesting the MYR is stronger than the JPY? After all, 1 ringgit = 29.7 Yen. Malaysia is stronger than the 3rd largest economy in the world?

GGK said...

The warrior only obfuscates.

None, repeat none, of his dire predictions with regard to the "little red dot" have come to pass.

So much for his powers of prognostication.

No doubt he is in sackcloth and ashes over the Malaysian Ringgit being wimped out by the Singapore Dollar.

Jeez, all those money launderers and neer-do-wells must be busy shorting the Ringgit.

Cap controls, anyone?

Anonymous said...

""Chiang Kai Shek's Taiwan, Park Chung Hee's Korea, the CCP's China were and are not benevolent dictatorships. And Japan is a one party state""

Ah, but it was only after democracy was installed did the economies of South Korea and Taiwan pick up to propel it into the ranks of developed nations. Meanwhile, its dictatorial sibling to the north languishes in poverty and famine. As for Japan, it has democratic multi party elections, the incumbents were out of power from 2009 to 2012, and more free than Singapore. Perhaps warrior is still thinking its not yet 1945 where they fly Zero fighters and go banzai.


""India, Argentina , Italy, Spain , Greece are bustling examples of the wonders of democracies. Add to that the UK, Ireland, Colombia and many of the thriving new democracies of Africa plus the winners of the Arab Spring plus Eastern Europeans like Hungary. Surely the wonders of democracies never cease.""

Hm, lets compare to dictatorships that have good economies, anyone else besides China (mostly propelled by exports to democratic Western nations and Japan), and a handful of Arab emirates (bubbled on oil wealth and little else)?

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 6.07.

Don’t give us your half past six shit. Instead wolf it down with some sauce after you fuck yourmother, shameless pig. The lies you spout are pretty incredible. And why not because you don’t have to provide the data to back them up and so remain safe from ridicule. Well chingkie pig, here are some hard facts:

Look at Table 2.1 (http://vbn.aau.dk/files/13994106/DIIPER_wp_5.pdf) and compute the averages for the democratic and non democratic states. Irrespective as to whether you leave out the first four laggards (some like Zambia and Zaire being victims of civil wars), you will still find the cumulative GNP for non-democratic countries outstripping the democratic ones. Do bear in mind that the democratic side is skewed with the presence of Singapork, which is effectively a one-party authoritarian regime as everyone knows.

And fuckhead, Taiwan (Kuomintang) and SK were essentially authoritarian/one party ruled until the mid 1990s. and since then Taiwan had clowns like Lee Teng Hui and Chen Shu Bian to thank for their current morass (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2013/07/25/2003568072) while SK never really recovered the sterling growth rates of Park, Chun Doo Hwan or Roh Tae Woo ever since Kim Young Sam messed up big time.

Whichever way you twist it, facts don’t lie, democracies are failures when it comes to consistent economic growth. Why Japan (ruled 54 out 58 years by the LDP since 1955) even modeled its early frameworks on Bismarckian state planning. If you have the brains, read Arnold Toynbee, The Industrial Revolution Boston: Beacon Press, 1964; Friedrich List, National System of Political Economy, Book II, The Theory (Roseville, Calif.: Dry Bones Press, 1999); Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1962) and Richard Franklin Bensel, The Political Economy of American Industrialization 1877–1900 (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2000) to gain an understanding that democracy was not the ONLY system relied upon to build free market in the West. But then again….you must be too stupid to even be able to read.

@The, I reckon your charlatan trendy claptrap does not stand to scrutiny. The Japanese economy in doldrums has not seen any narrowing between the Yen and the SGD.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=JPY&to=SGD&view=10Y

Nor does problems with the Swiss economy has witnessed a meltdown in the franc or narrowing in gaps between currencies.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CHF&to=SGD&view=10Y

Even, the New Zealand dollar has remained resilient.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=SGD&view=10Y

So much for your trend setting ways, stupid fellatist. Simply put, looking at exchange rates simply doesnt indicate anything, numbskull. There are numerous other factors at play, idiot.

As for absolute exchange rates, I was pointing out that was what the el stupidoes were looking at. Slow pick up eh fuckhead??

Off topic: And for those idiots still bent on fomenting sectarian strife on top of a potential racial strife in this country, these articles would make sober reading:

"The people gave them a chance to rise, but God was against them," said Helal, a robust silver-haired psychiatrist in Cairo. "They showed who they really are; they created scandals and they lost everything." http://articles.latimes.com/2013/aug/10/world/la-fg-egypt-sectarianism-20130810

http://news.sky.com/story/1107961/egypt-attack-on-shia-comes-at-dangerous-time

Whoever said that the Muslim Brotherhood are benign fundamentalists are bonkers. Better be afraid nay very afraid of PKR and PAS, the two Wahhabi aka MB nests in Malaysian politics.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Whoops. It appears the DIIPER document you posted contradicts your very own points. :)

""The good news is announced to be that popular acceptance of repression is
likely to decline as development comes closer to a society’s reach, which in turn
is likely to lead to a serious legitimation crisis. No country in human history has
ever achieved enduring stability by oppression.
This implies that prolonged
authoritarian rules prove costly and insensitive to the demands of an
increasingly complex society and require tremendous cost and effort to prevent
popular uprising or opposition coalitions from rising (Donnely 1989: 197).

Applied to the Korean case, while South Korea has indeed achieved rapid
growth, social contradictions inherent in the industrialization process have
generated significant and growing opposition to the development model
responsible for producing this growth. The authoritarian regime14 in South Korea
lost its legitimacy as economic success caused a fundamental shift in value
priorities from materialism to post-materialism (Inglehart 2000; Inglehart and
Klingeman 2000). Unable to meet new demands for political freedom and
participation, the regime could no longer justify its existence. The strengthening
of civil society is the second domestic factor, which helped remove the
authoritarians from office. At the societal level, economic development,
industrialization, and urbanization have worked together to create and strengthen
the wish of democratic restoration among the Korean populace (Kim 2001; S.H.
Kim 2003; H.R. Kim 2004, Choi 2005).
The triple solidarity of students,
workers, and religious leaders expanded further to include the middle-class
citizens in the democracy uprising of June 1987 (Kim and Lim 2007: 74). The
developmental performance under park and Chun regimes, thus reveals the
paradox of developmental dictatorship; while authoritarian rule was instrumental
for regime survival and economic growth, the very process of development
hastened the collapse of the regime itself. ""

And what has happened since democracy was restored in 1987? The GDP/capita of South Korea has skyrocketed. Today, we drive Hyundais, watch youtubes of Psy on Samsung Galaxy, and see warrior bashing the keyboard and curse at his Samsung laptop in anger upon seeing his house-of-cards logic crumbling. :)

http://www.intellectualtakeout.org/library/chart-graph/institutions-matter-real-capita-gdp-north-and-south-korea

As shown, the rate of GDP growth was sharper post-1987. In comparison the authoritarian North has stagnated and even declined.

""Irrespective as to whether you leave out the first four laggards (some like Zambia and Zaire being victims of civil wars), you will still find the cumulative GNP for non-democratic countries outstripping the democratic ones. ""

Sorry man, but authoritarian regimes like Zambia and Zaire (and many other banana republic dictatorships in Africa, Middle East, South America, and Asia) need to be included in the tally too despite their internal armed conflicts. The civil strife is usually the consequence of misrule by its authoritarian regimes. And we see that majority of authoritarian regimes do not enjoy good economies.



""Whichever way you twist it, facts don’t lie, democracies are failures when it comes to consistent economic growth. Why Japan (ruled 54 out 58 years by the LDP since 1955) even modeled its early frameworks on Bismarckian state planning.""


Tell me. Did the LDP remain in power by authoritarian dictatorship, or by winning elections? Before you continue with your B.S. that Japan is a one party state, take a look at the number of political parties there:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_parties_in_Japan

They even have a Communist Party. With eight seats in Parliament! :)

Anonymous said...

You don't have to fiddle with the data to foist your perverted interpretations on us, johnjuicer. The data doesn't lie whatever some analyst may remark in that Dipper. The extracts you quoted simply indicate your stupidity. Look at the Korean quote you highlighted selectively. Why not commence highlighting from the previous sentence I.e "applied to the South Korean.........."

You dare not do that because it would show that compelled by social pressures, SK loosened, paid the price with lower growth and slower per capita increases. And your crap about Hyundai, Samsung does not wash arsehole because they were established and fully supported by the very authoritarian regimes you maligned. Heard of the word chaebol, go check it out and its origins, pariah fuckhead.

And fuckhead, I was never talking about North Korea as you are deludedly imagining. No one would call it a 'benevolent dictatorship' (bd) or even an enlightened absolutism. Go google the term (bd) before you come ejaculating your silly mumbo jumbo here, stupid fellatist!

Hei airbrain, you don't understand what " irrespective" means. Check your dicktionary first before mouthing off like a shithead. Oh I forgot, you are too into mouthing cocks that you cannot think or decipher right with all that cum jamming up your brain. Anyway, as i said, even if you bring those strife torn states into the equation, the cumulative total of the Non democratic regimes beat the democratic ones. Check it out, if you know simple mathematics, that is. Hei stupid you have been silent like a clammed up arsehole about Singapig being democratic........hahahahaha and what about references I gave, too scared to flip through them lest your delusion about democracy comes crumbling around you, eh cuntlouse?

Yes, Japan has many political parties but only one party rule cos the Japs are not stupid as you are, clit-tick! The Communist Party of Japan is just one of the many mosquito parties populating theJapanese political landscape. Why, they even had the Japanese Socialist Party in power as part of a coalition briefly in 1993

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(Japan)

Say what? The Japanese kicked them out and returned the LDP just as they did with the recent bunch of opposition nincompoops who by the way were spawned originally from the LDP.

Japan gives you veneer of democracy, scratch the surface and you find a quasi authoritarian state that is better at accepting dissent than Singapork. And the Japanese have more common sense than you when deciding to stick with the LDP just like the Singapiggians know that sticking with their moneylaundering PAPpy is the only sane choice.

I know Jap politics and society more than you know your mother's filthy cunt. So go fuck her to learn more about your wasted origins than wasting your time spouting lies here. And by the way, switch off your Toshiba lappie before starting your cunt and arse raping session. We don't want the whole world to hear your mummy's whelps, squeals and yelps while you do her with the laptops on board camera on, do we, wasted sperm and egg?

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

One final observation, why don't you do some Maths between pre democracy South Korea and Taiwan versus post democracy South Korea and Taiwan with regard to average GDP growth.

I am sure some surprises await you there that will wash away your castles of sand into the deep blue sea. The simple truism whether you like it or not is that authoritarianism/ less democracy = higher economic growth while liberalism / more democracy = lower economic growth. It works in all countries that transited from authoritarianism to liberal democracy irrespective of your pathetic rants, cum guzzling shithead! And maybe this paper outlining the comparison between SK and the Phillipines would be an eye opener. Read the conclusion at least if you don't read the rest, dummkopf!

http://www.zum.de/whkmla/sp/0708/chikyu/chikyu2.html#Tine26

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

You know, with the amount of bullshit you spew from your mouth and keyboard at every sentence anyone would think you have an obsession with oral and anal sex. Anyone would think you are a closeted homosexual who goes cottaging at the public toilets. :)

""And fuckhead, I was never talking about North Korea as you are deludedly imagining. No one would call it a 'benevolent dictatorship' (bd) or even an enlightened absolutism. Go google the term (bd) before you come ejaculating your silly mumbo jumbo here, stupid fellatist! ""

Of course you do not wish to include the North. Its basket case authoritarian governance pales in comparison to its democratic and prosperous neighbour. Hardly proves your point does it? :)

Every dictatorship proclaims itself as benevolent. Even the failed states of Africa and South America.

""Yes, Japan has many political parties but only one party rule cos the Japs are not stupid as you are, clit-tick! The Communist Party of Japan is just one of the many mosquito parties populating theJapanese political landscape. Why, they even had the Japanese Socialist Party in power as part of a coalition briefly in 1993

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(Japan)

Say what? The Japanese kicked them out and returned the LDP just as they did with the recent bunch of opposition nincompoops who by the way were spawned originally from the LDP.

Japan gives you veneer of democracy, scratch the surface and you find a quasi authoritarian state that is better at accepting dissent than Singapork. And the Japanese have more common sense than you when deciding to stick with the LDP just like the Singapiggians know that sticking with their moneylaundering PAPpy is the only sane choice.""

Hey dumbass, you claimed that 'Japan is a one party state'.

Definition of one party state:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-party_state

A single-party state, one-party state, one-party system or single-party system is a type of state in which a single political party forms the government, usually based on the existing constitution. All other parties are either outlawed or allowed to take only a limited and controlled participation in the election. Sometimes the term de facto single-party state is used to describe a dominant-party system that, unlike the single-party state, allows (at least nominally) democratic multiparty elections, but the existing practices or balance of political power effectively prevent the opposition from winning the elections. Single-party states are often, but not always, considered to be totalitarian. Some single-party states are widely seen as authoritarian and not totalitarian.

If Japan was a one-party state like you claims there would not be all these political parties around and the ruling gov would never have lost the previous election. Or protests:
http://rt.com/news/japan-anti-nuclear-protests-129/

""I know Jap politics and society more than you know your mother's filthy cunt.""

You only know Jack and Shit, and Jack has gone home. Have fun getting to know your shit, piggywarrior. :)

Anonymous said...

You make my day, cocksuckling idiot with your silly comments. Thanks for the laughs,cuntworm. No comments about Hyundai, Samsung now is it or the chaebol thingy got your small cock?

When I appended the data about the GNP figures between DEMOCRATIC and NON DEMOCRATIC regimes (caps on for your brain's benefit), was there any North Korea in it fuckhead. Lets revisit that link if you have a cockmuscle, arsefucking shithead:

http://vbn.aau.dk/files/13994106/DIIPER_wp_5.pdf

It is one page 6 there, go have a look. No NK in there, motherfucking shit and also read the Dipper article carefully, seems like you dont know what you are talking about.

And use your brains when we are talking about benevolent dictatorships. NK does not qualify at all, It a Stalinist-Maoist-Kim Il Sung piece of shit like you, no capitalism/free market yada2 there. Get it fuckhead.

The same does not apply to Singapig, China, Russia and PRE-DEMOCRACY Korea, Taiwan and quasi authoritarian/democracies states like Japan etc.They all have market economies but limited or no political freedom.

The argument is solely about Democratic and Non-democratic states with market economies. Even a baby knows NK would not qualify, except an arseraped, mouthfucked babbling madarse lout like YOU.

2. Japan =one party state. Well your eloquent quotes show that you are just the cut and paste type homo troll with no brains or any inkling of intellectual thought. For even you cannot see the obvious staring at you from your quote:

"Sometimes the term de facto single-party state is used to describe a dominant-party system that, unlike the single-party state, allows (at least nominally) democratic multiparty elections, but the existing practices or balance of political power effectively prevent the opposition from winning the elections.

Now read the above slowly and relate it to LDP's 54 out of 58 years in power.(Singapig is another one). But then again, if you cannot infer or interpret, it is understandable, for you are some unwanted and undesired filthy piece of shit that fell outta your mummy's arsehole after being constipated for 9 months in her colon aka shit tank.

Now go and cuntfuck, arserape and mouth fuck mama,as well as earshaft and nosedick her, useless whorepiss swilling liar. And if she yelps like a filthy torncunted bitch in pain, preach your mumbo jumbo about the virtues of liberal democratic fucking which allows all holes to be shafted, no questions asked. Stupid wasted arsewhoring pig!


p/s: Over the last several decades, democracies around the world have not produced higher economic growth rates than autocracies: “the net effect of more political freedom on growth is theoretically ambiguous.”

Robert Barro, in "Determinants of Economics Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Study" (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997) p. 58

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

""You make my day, cocksuckling idiot with your silly comments. Thanks for the laughs,cuntworm. No comments about Hyundai, Samsung now is it or the chaebol thingy got your small cock?""

Your obsession with penises aside, would corporations like BMW or Siemens be an example of the triumph of the autocratic Nazi state? No, as those companies have developed in an environment of postwar democracy. The same with the chaebols which continue to thrive in today's free environment.

As for Samsung chaebol which already had a successful history before the military dictatorships:

In 1961 when General Park seized power, Lee was in Japan and for some time he did not return to South Korea. Eventually a deal was struck and Lee returned but Samsung had to give up control over the banks it acquired and follow economic directives from Park's government.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Byung-chul


""When I appended the data about the GNP figures between DEMOCRATIC and NON DEMOCRATIC regimes (caps on for your brain's benefit), was there any North Korea in it fuckhead.""

In it or not in it, North Korea STILL is a classic contemporary case study of authoritarianism failing in comparison to democracy.

""It is one page 6 there, go have a look. No NK in there, motherfucking shit and also read the Dipper article carefully, seems like you dont know what you are talking about.

And use your brains when we are talking about benevolent dictatorships. NK does not qualify at all, It a Stalinist-Maoist-Kim Il Sung piece of shit like you, no capitalism/free market yada2 there. Get it fuckhead. ""

""The same does not apply to Singapig, China, Russia and PRE-DEMOCRACY Korea, Taiwan and quasi authoritarian/democracies states like Japan etc.They all have market economies but limited or no political freedom.""

""The argument is solely about Democratic and Non-democratic states with market economies. Even a baby knows NK would not qualify, except an arseraped, mouthfucked babbling madarse lout like YOU.""

The title of the table says:

'Average Annual Rates of GNP per Capita Growth in Democratic and Non-democratic Regimes: 1965-1990 (%)'

Nowhere does it say 'with market economies'. You have been caught trying to change the goalposts squirm your way out of the rat hole you dug! :)

So NK certainly can be used as a counter point

And Libya certainly was not a market economy with Gaddafi controlling the economy with quasi-Socialist doctrines.


""2. Japan =one party state. Well your eloquent quotes show that you are just the cut and paste type homo troll with no brains or any inkling of intellectual thought. For even you cannot see the obvious staring at you from your quote:

"Sometimes the term de facto single-party state is used to describ...blah blah blub... vely prevent the opposition from winning the elections.

Now read the above slowly and relate it to LDP's 54 out of 58 years in power.... blah blah blah... if you cannot infer or interpret, it is understandable, for you are some unwanted and undesi... ""

Hey dipshit, if Japan was a one party state, there would be no way the Democratic Party would have won in 2009. In fact the LDP would enjoy a supermajority but this is not the case.

""Now go and cuntfuck, arserape and mouth fuck mama,as well as earshaft and nosedick her, useless whorepiss swilling liar. And if she yelps like a filthy torncunted bitch in pain, preach your mumbo jumbo about the virtues of liberal democratic fucking which allows all holes to be shafted, no questions asked. Stupid wasted arsewhoring pig! ""

Conclusion: Warrior 231 is a closeted homosexual with "mummy issues". :)

Anonymous said...

Hey arsewhore , I have news for you. You are the stupidest pig to have stumbled ignorantly into RB and a poor liar to boot.

Siemens founded 1847, BMW founded 1916, both way before Hitler and lived through Naziism NOT postwar democracy as you LIE. Also why not mention Mercedes/Daimler, Bayer, AEG, etc.

Chaebols were formed in the time of Park Chung Hee and nurtured through Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo, all military men, that is fact, so don't lie.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaebol

and the article clearly mentions that by 1990, they had helped turned SK into a first world country way before it democratized.

The dipper is all about authoritarian market economy regimes and democratic market economy regimes. Anyone reading rationally and unexcitedly with their brains on would know that. But you don't have a brain fuckhead. You have a shithead screwed on. Let me dare you to do something, would you please quote at least one of the 4 points on page 5 of the article for us. Cut and paste it please. Here is the link again:

http://vbn.aau.dk/files/13994106/DIIPER_wp_5.pdf

The author is not stupid like you, pigarse fucking knobhead! She is clear as daylight about comparing which type of regime generates better economic growth, liberal democratic market economies vs authoritarian / quasi democratic market economies and the answer is pretty clear on the table on page 6 to all except a brain damaged moron like you.

I guess ONLY you are still deluded by your NK imaginings and fairy tales, mongoloid. And if I ever meant a comparison between Stalinist-Leninist-Maoist models vs Capitalist liberal models, I wouldn't have used the Park Chung Hee- Chun Doo Hwan- Roh Tae Woo's South Korean or Chiang Kai Shek- Chiang Ching Kuo/ Kuomintang's Taiwan examples.

Instead, I would have opted for Mao's China, Stalin and Brezhnevs USSR or even Erich Honecker's East Germany, all examples of the failure of centrally planned Marxist or Maoist economies.

But you are too stupid to follow the argument and since your tall tales about the superiority of liberal democracy market economies does not wash with the data, you have to resort to facts mangling and name calling to make your pathetic case. Keep warm and cosy in your delusion, fuckhead as you do generate a lot of laughable lies for our benefit.

2. Libya is the straw you are clutching in desperation. Yet it in keeping with your form book that you choose a madarse like Gadaffi to push your argument. But you purposely leave out the fact that as mad as he was, Gadaffi lurched between socialism and capitalism. Read his life here since you are a wiki fan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar_Gaddafi

3. Now cuntlouse, you make me laugh about Japan. Does a short three year rule suddenly make Japan a blooming vibrant multiparty democracy, cockhead? The history of Japanese politics will show that one of the core reasons for LDP longevity was the electoral system that favored it

http://irps.ucsd.edu/assets/039/11625.pdf

But I bet you won't understand one bit of it as you have a shithead screwed on. My take is that you will scrounge iwiki for bits and pieces that will fit your childish worldview and paste them here with bold faced garbage rants to boot.

Now quit spouting garbage here and quit wasting your whore's precious time waiting for you to get your cock jacked up and give her next all holes dicked shafting session. She must be wishing her son was no closet homo but the sick fixation you have with the term is an obvious indicator of your sexual tastes,,faggot. I reckon your daddy entered his whore via her butthole. And his squirted sperm probably latched onto the walls of her colon aka shit tank and gave her an almighty constipation as it burrowed in there for nine months before dropping off her arsehole as some damn hardheaded piece of shit aka YOU, shithole shafting gay bastard.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

"Chaebols were formed in the time of Park Chung Hee and nurtured through Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo, all military men, that is fact, so don't lie."

The very same link you posted for "evidence" says this:

Although South Korea's major industrial programs did not begin until the early 1960s, the origins of the country's entrepreneurial elite were found in the political economy of the 1950s. .. After the departure of the Japanese in 1945, some Korean businessmen obtained the assets of some of the Japanese firms, a number of which grew into the chaebol of the 1990s. These companies, as well as certain other firms that were formed in the late 1940s and early 1950s, had close links with Syngman Rhee's First Republic, which lasted from 1948 to 1960..

So you see, many of the Chaebols like Samsung and Hyundai were founded during SK's democratic First Republic, way before the 1961 coup.


The dipper is all about authoritarian market economy regimes and democratic market economy regimes. ..blabla.. Let me dare you to do something, would you please quote at least one of the 4 points on page 5 of the article for us. Cut and paste it please.:


Lets take something from Page 6:

But he draws a distinction between authoritarian rule
and what he calls true developmental state; in such a setting the bureaucratic
rulers possess a unique kind of legitimacy that allows them to be much more
experimental and undoctrinaire than in the typical authoritarian regime


Without a developmental state, democratic or not, no contemporary developing society is likely to achieve developmental breakthrough. Successful developmental outcomes, both historically and in modern era, seem to have depended less on
whether regimes have been democratic or not
, and more on such factors as internal stability; on acceptability in international economic and political markets; on positive relations with dominant economies... etc...

That totally demolishes your ill founded stand that authoritarianism has been better than democratic societies.


..She is clear as daylight about comparing which type of regime generates better economic growth, liberal democratic market economies vs authoritarian / quasi democratic market economies...


If you actually DID pay attention, the writer was comparing authoritarian vs. non-autoritarian countries. Libya, which is included, was certainly not a market economy during that peroid. It was a statist socialist republic ruled by an autocratic Gaddafi.

And if I ever meant a comparison between Stalinist-Leninist-Maoist models vs Capitalist liberal models, I wouldn't have used the Park Chung Hee- Chun Doo Hwan- Roh Tae Woo's South Korean or Chiang Kai Shek- Chiang Ching Kuo/ Kuomintang's Taiwan examples.

Instead, I would have opted.. etc
"

NK is a excellent example as it is a neigbour of South Korea, both countries going separate ways post-WWII, fighting a war, and separate fates. NK: a continuous one-party regime which is a basket case, while the South having democratic republic form of governments from 1948-1960 and 1987 until today.


2. Libya is the straw you are clutching in desperation.... But you purposely leave out the fact that as mad as he was, Gadaffi lurched between socialism and capitalism.


Nope, Libya was included in the list of countries in that dipper report. It was also called the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya for a time during Gadaffi's rule.

The history of Japanese politics will show that one of the core reasons for LDP longevity was the electoral system that favored it

contd...

Anonymous said...

contd...

Multiparty democracy means the existance of many parties able to gain power. And look at the title of the pdf you posted:

The Rise and Fall of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party

If Japan was an 'single party state' it would never have lost the 2009 election. Or even other parties gaining seats of the Diet in past elections. More likely, they would be outlawed. Your notion of Japan as a one-party state would be laughed out of the conference hall by academics and poli science students. :]

Malaysia's electoral system also favours BN who has held power since 1950s. But our country is listed as Democratic under the dipper report you posted. Ha! :]



Now quit spouting garbage here and quit wasting your whore's precious time waiting for you to get your cock jack...bla bla... fart... bla... fart... faarrrt... blah.. arsehole as some damn hardheaded piece of shit aka YOU, shithole shafting gay bastard.


Yoda: Obsessed with sodomy, this warrior two three one is. Closet homo, he is.

Anonymous said...

You lie again, slutboy. Just like your tall tales about BMW and Siemens, the facts firmly affirm that your arsehole is indeed located atop your skull.

None of the chaebols appeared in the era of Synman Rhee as you claim. They were already there way before that some as early as the Japanese occupation and some shortly after liberation in 1945.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/chaebol.htm#SAMSUNG

Secondly, contrary to your lies about Syngman Rhee's "prosperous democracy", the Rhee era is remembered as one replete with corruption, widespread poverty, economic malaise and underdevelopment and even political chicanery. And Rhee was a GREAT democrat himself, hahahahahaha:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syngman_Rhee

This wiki article nails your arseholic claims against authoritarian Park for good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_on_the_Han_River

Do also read the fact that the first really democratic government( elected by popular vote) in 1993 after Synghman Rhee was also responsible for screwing up South Korea.

The fact you dint quote page 5 of the Dipper shows what a pondan homo you are. I dint ask you to scrounge for left overs elsewhere to save yourself but you did that precisely cos your position was untenable. So much for your integrity, liar!

And you don't even understand the developmental state crap you posted. Why didn't you cut and paste the whole thing about Chalmers Johnson as posted on that page 6. Why cut half and try to con us with your developmental state hocus pocus, eh shameless bastard of a homo pig? Anyone reading the original will laugh at your stupidity,not to mention your innate idiocy.

And shortly after cutting and pasting Chalmers and twisting his message , you revert like a confused trannie about authoritarian vs non authoritarian about Libya. Seems to me you don't even trust your own contentions and is so confused about yer arguments that you would rather knot yourself with yer pantyhose than admit your moronity.

And you go to great lengths about Libya's official name as if it means something earth shattering. Why not do the same for China then, idiotic bastard scumbag of a douchebag. Well here is a shocker for you, the socialist heaven Libya was actually a democratic oasis under Gadaffi and the second last paragraph in this link is a revelation, ain't it shithead?

http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2013/01/12/gaddafis-libya-was-africas-most-prosperous-democracy/

Now come running and shouting hallelanchiau, it was democracy that saved Libya, stupid crackpot.

I won't say anything about North Korea anymore as it is pointless pointing out the obvious to a Down syndrome afflicted moronic bastard. Neither would I say anything anymore about Japan. It is obvious that you are too brain damaged to understand anyway, mongoloid fuckhead.

Finally, you wanna win that bad, take it dumbkopf for its a waste of time arguing with the likes of you just like your pappy wasted his time fucking his filthy whore's arsehole to beget you. What a waste of sperm and egg. Bet the old douchebag must be cursing every second of his cunthungry moment.

Warrior 231