Thursday, September 16, 2010

Malaysia doing good, but where's the party?

Doing better than Singapore, tau! Op-Ed, the prolific sometime Malaysian, sometime Singaporkian journo-blogger, wonders why the Opposition (i.e DAP and Co) are so quiet about the latest state of the Malaysian economy, which shows a massive capital inflow and, as a result, the significant spike on the Bursa during the first 10 months of the year.

Well, it's not just the Opposition who are quiet, Reme.The loudest-mouthed MPs of the Barisan Nasional are also quiet. Instead of working themselves up in  a frenzy and foaming from their mouths and their asses whacking a green (as in setahun jagong) NGO like Perkasa, the Quintuplets in UMNO would be doing constituents and their Boss (Najib Razak, last I checked) a favor by explaining to the Rakyat and the Pakatan Rakyat, which are two very different entities, what these figures mean and why Malaysians should pat themselves on the back for doing a good job.

The Opposition leaders are not going to praise you when you or the country do well. You kena belajar angkat bakul sendirilah ... .

Check out Reme's blog here.

Minggu lalu, sebelum Raya, akhbar saya tulis besar-besar bahawa dalam Lapan Bulan pertama tahun ini (Jan-Ogos) - the first page of the Money section in The Straits Times, the biggest English-language newspaper in Southeast Asia. Di sini
Beginilah kedudukan wang keluar-masuk dan kedudukan bursa saham masing-masing:

                      wang masuk             indeks naik
                      (US$juta)                 (peratus)

China             1,946                       Shanghai  -17.7
Korea S.           655                       Kospi  6.24
India                 551                       Sensex  6.64
Indonesia          285                       Composite  26.9
Thailand           158                       SET  26.6
Malaysia          117                     FTSEBursa 12.75
Hong Kong       113                      HangSeng -2.1
Philippines        23                        Phil SE  23.7

Singapore       -138                      STI 4.4
Japan              -204                     Nikkei -12.5
Taiwan          -323                       Taiex -3.7

Asia              3,314                      MSCI Asia-Pac 1.1
(ex Japan)

[Sumber EPFR, Citi Investment Research, Bloomberg]


  1. Anonymous2:49 am

    Dear Datuk Rocky,

    I think you are missing the point of OpEd's article.

    As he rightly pointed out we should be aware that PORTFOLIO FUNDS (money that goes into the stock market) are NOT long term investors like FDI. That money can LESAP as fast as it comes in. In fact the main reason you see these 'pelabur' is because they are SPECULATING on the Malaysian Ringgit (just like when they used to speculate AGAINST is during the ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS). The reason behind this is because INTEREST RATES in the West are so low that it is profitable to do a CARRY TRADE on top of benefiting from strengthening ASIAN currencies. This HOT MONEY does not provide much help to the MALAYSIAN ECONOMY like providing EMPLOYMENT and improving PRODUCTIVITY. That is why it is RIGHTLY not much reason to HEBOH about how well MALAYSIA is doing. In fact, proper JOURNALISTS (as opposed to SPINNERS like your goodself) should HEBOH that Malaysians should be WARY that so much money has come into the country SO QUICKLY because when that WALL OF MONEY leaves it could create a lot of INSTABILITY to our domestic liquidity that even the BANK NEGARA may have trouble controlling.

    Pelabur Jangka PANJANG.

  2. Moo...8:50 am

    Yes where is the party?

    Since there is so much inflow Malaysia must be very rich and prosper.

    Ha ha ha this not the case, why?

    Becos this is not long term investment and no new jobs created?

    The foreign investors in the Bursa can just sell the next day and say bye bye....... then you can imagine who is partying.....

  3. Wow, so little to brag about and so hard up for good news that you have to grasp at straws. Base year, my friend. Base year. You can do wonder depending on which base year (or month) you use.

    An example:

    Stock Exchange A:
    2008 - Index at 100
    2009 - Index at 80 (-20%)
    2010 - Index at 96 (+20%)

    Stock Exchange B:
    2008 - Index at 100
    2009 - Index at 150 (+50%)
    2010 - Index at 140 (-6.7%)

    So, which stock exchange performed better? Stock Exchange A because it is up by 25% compared to 2009?

    But it is actually down by 4% if you use 2008 as the base year.

    OTOH, Stock Exchange B, although down by 6.7% in the last year, is actually up by 40% when 2008 is used as the base year.

    As they say, statistics are lies, lies and damn lies.

  4. Anonymous9:55 am

    rocky Bru,

    Wow, you can look at Thailand and Indonesia perform better then Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

    Thailand, with the red shirt problems can even exceed Malaysia's performance. Their index increase about 26%

    What is the indices that is indicative of economic performance. Is it the high and low of the stock exchange?

    Orang KL

  5. The problem with those who look only at the short intervals and form strategic conlusions is precisely that, shortsightednes.

    For a more stately look at things, see Dr Mahathir's post today on FDI which ties the long term dynamics of growth, currency and investment nicely together.

  6. Sinseh Chong11:55 am

    Hi ROCKY (Ooppss sorry! I mean Dato'),

    Why is the Opposition party (PAKATAN RAKYAT) being so QUIET suddenly??? Hmmm...kindly allow me to explain, yeah??? Thanks.

    PAKATAN RAKYAT leaders are only interested in CELEBRATING UGLY AFFAIRS/EVENTS. This is becos' a simple word such as "HAPPINESS" simply DOESN'T exist in PAKATAN RAKYAT at all. They only BARK & ATTEND SAD AFFAIRS.

    This is the reason why we only see PAKATAN RAKYAT leaders BARKING in SAD EVENTS such as those 'time wasting' Candlelight Vigils, those BARBARIC illegal street demonstrations, funerals of some dogs that got killed or some cows that got banged by cars, etc.

    JOYOUS AFFAIRS such as what Dato' you're currently blogging about is something PAKATAN RAKYAT will NEVER EVER understand. PAKATAN RAKYAT is merely a SADDIST group of whom only understand what is "MATI dan SEDIH" all about.

    That's why when there's any SAD cases...the 1st DONKEY to be at scene will always be someone from PAKATAN RAKYAT. Such KALDAI only RECOGNIZE tragedies, deaths & turmoils.

    Leaders from BARISAN NASIONAL are more balanced type of people. That's why the DACING is very appropriate as its' icon.

  7. Anonymous2:21 pm

    Mongolia was the NUMBER one, performing index in the world. Maybe that is why, semua dok diam aje. Lagipun sejak tahun 1980-an, Msia termasok dlm senarai emerging markets. Dah tiga puloh tahun, masis lagi emerging market, konon, walhal Singapura, Korea Selatan, Hong Kong dan Taiwan yg sama sama dgn Msia disekitar tahun 1980-an, kini dah menjadi negara yg sudah membangung. Kito maseh, sedang membangung.

  8. Anonymous2:46 pm

    Former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said he hopes for an explanation from the government to why it wants the ringgit to be traded offshore again saying the move would not facilitate foreign investments.
    "I hope the government will explain why it wants the ringgit to be traded again. I hope it is not because we want to be good boys who will always do what we are told to do," he said.

    YES, rocky, Mahathir knows MONGOLIA is the global TOP performer and that we are HALF past SIX.

    yabadabadooooooooooooooo Banana Republik.

  9. Praxis 10:58 AM

    Really? So, Dr M is now an economics guru? Then him prognosticate why Malaysia dropped from 24th to 26th place in the latest WEF global competitiveness rankings.

    Or let him explain why, in spite of his much promoted MSC brainchild, the major IT companies persist in keeping their regional HQs in Singapore?

    Or why cumulative US FDI in Singapore up to end-2009 is more than 4 times that in Malaysia (according to US Dept of Commerce stats)?

    Or why Japan and the UK have put more FDI into Singapore than in Malaysia?

    Dr M neatly sidesteps the difficult questions - such as why, 50+ years after Merdeka, Malaysians still have to go and work in countries such as Singapore as cleaners, gardeners, security guards, factory hand and bus drivers? The principle of comparitive advantage?

  10. Charles F Moreira8:04 pm

    Dato' Rocky,

    I'm sure we would have good reason to celebrate if it was an inflow of productive investment which develops industries and creates jobs but stock market investment is speculative investment which only enriches the savvy investor of the backs of the true creators of wealth - i.e. the hardworking people whom the media rarely ever highlight.

    People who get caught up with the stock market as an indicator of wealth are influenced by the current predominance of Anglo-Saxon economic thinking which sees consumption a a measure of society's wealth. Well the economic crisis and massive debt which the U.S. and many of its citizens are in today is proof of that fallacy.

    Other economic thinkers, such as the German Fredrick List and Karl Marx see measure wealth of societies by what they produce, not how much they consume.

    Any wealth gained through stock market speculation is parasitic - i.e. wealth created without any productive work, and as such is highly exploitative of the people whose labour created the wealth and value of that company's stock in the first place.

    Stock market speculation is like gambling or betting on a horse, so the Malaysian expression, "I play the stock market" is a very apt description of what people are in fact doing, though some English language purists say that the "correct" description is "I invest in the stock market."


  11. Sinseh Chong,

    you said "This is the reason why we only see PAKATAN RAKYAT leaders BARKING in SAD EVENTS such as those 'time wasting' Candlelight Vigils, those BARBARIC illegal street demonstrations, funerals of some dogs that got killed or some cows that got banged by cars, etc."

    street demo, candle light is wrong??

    what kind of a crap Chinese mentality you have?? I do know that your Chinaman 1.3billiob people live like slave under CCCP and communism unlike taiwanese... same goes for those chinaman under lee kuan yew ( however he is slighlt better than communist china)

    If you dont like demo, just go back CHINA.

    Freedom in Asia and Africa against British was inspired by Mahathma gandhi who led non violent marches, hartals and mass boycott of British busineses.... Many people went to jail, died in custody... Martin Luther Kind and nelson Mandela was inspired by such events.

    You Chinaman are bunch of P%gs. I am sure you are a MCA diehard, stooge of your porn actor president, Chua soi lek.

    Chinaman in this country are as dirty as certain political party in the ruling coalition. Ling Liong Sik of PKFZ, Chua soi lek of Video Blue actor, Lee Kim Sai the racist Lalang Instigator....

    If you people want single rule for 100years, Just turn this country from democracy into absolute rule like North Korea, China, Burma and Vietnam.

    We want democracy restored the right way. Dont push us like the anti Suharto demo in 1998...It can happen either way. Choose the peaceful Ballot box and Voting system.....

    Selamatkan Malaysia.
    Kesian Sabah Sarawak.

  12. Skilgannon10665:01 pm

    Anon 5:47 PM raised a number of valid points.

    So, why is "Praxis" keeping quiet?

    A recent news report quoted Gita Wirjawan, head of Indonesia's BKPM, as saying that total realised FDI in Indonesia stood at 71 trillion rupiah in the first half of the year, up 46 per cent y-o-y, with a full-year FDI target of 160.1 trillion rupiah (US$17.8 billion).

    What did Malaysia get in terms of committed FDI for the first half of 2010?

    Are you reading this, Praxis?

  13. Skilgannon10665:18 pm

    Wasn't it Tun Dr Mahathir who inveighed against internationalising the ringgit and vilified forex trading as a non-productive pestilence?

    How many listened to his clarion call? Not many, I dare say, with both China and India considering measures to further internationalise the yuan and the Indian rupee respectively.

    And Bank Negara Malaysia making a maiden purchase of China's yuan bonds to diversify it's forex reserves gives a little more push to the internationalisation of the yuan.

    Singapore is already the fourth largest forex centre in the world after London, New York and Tokyo. Eight of the top 10 global banks in forex trading have trading desks and forex sales teams in Singapore. It is estimated that Singapore trades about US$266 billion worth of currencies a day (5 per cent of global forex trades).

    And this, in turn, will attract "algos" (high-frequency traders), hedge funds and wealthy private investors to set up shop in Singapore.

    Which kinda leaves KL in the financial backwaters.

    And further cements Singapore as the unchallenged financial hub of the region.

    "Pelabur", any one?

  14. Anonymous4:51 pm

    Being the ASEAN centre for money laundering coming from Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines & Thailand, justify part of that US$266 billion worth of currencies exchange a day.

    What else good for Singapore coming a few decades ahead the moment all these bastards were eradicated back at their home through political reformation?
    It would be like turning off the big tap at Skudai..dehydration to economic death anyone..?

    To add worst, Singapore soon will be a "me no speak english" island with the infestation of this mainland Chinese disease that were given such tongkat by LKY struggling to maintain the chingkie cannot sepik good ingilish but want high SGD pay coz me Singapolean, no Chinaman..

    ahh..that would sound like coming for a HIV prostitute condom-free in a 5-star spa for an investor, wouldn't it?

    read it all here,

    money launderer, pendatang bodoh jadi warganegara segera, profesional brain drain among marginalized citizen speaking are not for "pelabur" in the long run.. these are all "pelebur".

    Singapore in its self destruction mode..? Down under with LKY at the end..tragic story ending, so pity!


  15. Anonymous1:18 am

    Anyway Singapore is going to sink soon. PAP is also going to sink big time at the ballot box because Singaporeans are fed up with their policies of giving tongkats to the Aliens from China, India, the Phillipines, Malaysian Chinkies etc......Singaporean Chinese hate the PRC bastards as well as the Chinkies from Malaysia.