Saturday, May 15, 2010

10.1 % 1st Q growth: A Fluke?

Recommended reading: Solid Growth, But Momentum Is Slowing by HashimH from Economics Malaysia, the latest addition to my blogroll.
"NAJIB GOT IT RIGHT". I've been thinking of what the 10.1 per cent GDP growth for Jan-March this year means for the people. The bottom 40 per cent, especially. It's the biggest quarterly economic growth Malaysia has recorded this decade. Back in the early 90s, double-digit GDP growth wasn't news. Which was why, I suppose, Dr M was so gung-ho about us achieving the developed nation status by 2020.

The last 5 years or so have been a rough patch for the economy. Are we on solid ground now? Can we expect an economic boom after this?

Dr Yeah Kim Leng, the top ecomomist at RAM Holdings, thinks Najib has got it right in terms of his economic policies, so far.

Excerpts:

"When Prime Minister Najib took office, it was at the height of the global financial crisis. What we see here is that the PM has passed the most critical challenge of ensuring that we can withstand the synchronised global recession.

"The policies that are implemented have mitigated the effects of the global financial crisis to the extent that Malaysia did not suffer a hard landing," he said.

Read Bernama's Economists: Najib got it right.

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jaga-Jaga,,,,kita tengok the next few weeks,,SIAPA yang KENA,,!!!!!

SEMUA itu inflate figure,,!!!!!!


-KETURUNAN JUDI-

Anonymous said...

And you believe what Bernama has to say?

The only person Malaysians should be grateful to for saving our economy is Barrack Obama.

Coming into his first term, he basically pulled off a miracle. Which means we did not go through too much pain.

If you think I am talking cock and bull, ask any corporate businessman worth his/her salt. Ibrahim Ali doesn't count.

Jerry Chin a.k.a. TOKZ said...

***ANALYSIS & PREDICTION FOR SIBU BY-ELECTION (16/5/2010)***

Without any further INTRODUCTION, I believe there are many people who already know who I am & how PRECISE & INTELLIGENT I am in POLITICAL PREDICTIONS. You may click the below link as PROOF for my GREAT PREDICTION for the recent HULU SELANGOR By-Election.

Pls. click the below link to for CONCRETE EVIDENCE (from NAT. TAN Jelas.info blog)
http://malaysiakini.com/v6/link.php?http://jelas.info/2010/05/13/najib-in-sibu-sounds-just-like-a-copofficial-trying-to-solicit-a-bribe/

I "FORESEE & PREDICT" SUPP to WIN hands down with a MAJORITY of 2000-2500 votes!!!

One may NOT like my prediction but I must first WARN you that NEVER to take my PREDICTIONS lightly. I had time & time PROVED my PREDICTIONS CORRECT & I had successfully put many Political Analysts including the FUGITIVE BLOGGER name 'Raja Petra' to SHAME.

Why would I say SUPP will win??? Here I go.......>>>

1) DAP's presence is NOT STRONG enough in SIBU. The kind of political perception DAP is trying to play (Ultra Chinese) is of NO MATCH to SUPP as 80%-90% Sibu Chinese still thinks SUPP is the representative party for the Chinese community in SIBU.

2) DAP alliance with PAS to form PAKATAN RAKYAT had brought more DAMAGE than BENEFIT in the Sibu By-Election. Most Sibu Chinese perceive PAS as a HARDCORE ISLAMIC party (or you may also feel free to call it the TALIBANS). The recent CHURCHES ATTACKS in Peninsula Malaysia had put FEARS into many Sibu Chinese to vote for Pakatan Rakyat as most Chinese in Sibu are mainly Christians. For the Sibu Chinese to vote for DAP (Pakatan Rakyat) is equivalent to voting for their CHURCHES to be BOMBED by the TALIBANS (PAS).

3) DAP were NOT able to penetrate many IBAN majority areas in Sibu during campaigning period. DAP blames it on SABOTAGE (boat NOT available to reach their targeted destinations) but I call it BULLSHIT EXCUSES. Perhaps, DAP campaigners was too busy looking for CHINA DOLLS in Sibu KTVs or are too busy enjoying their KAMPUA PORK MEE.

4) DAP had NOT shown to SIBU voters they are a PARTY of which can bring CHANGES & DEVELOPMENTS. All DAP had been preaching & talking during their campaigning period is just KUTUK, KUTUK & COMPLAIN. What's the bladdy difference between DAP & a OLD AUNTY in PASAR, correct??? We might as well put the OLDEST LADY in Sibu to be DAP's candidate, right???

5) TAIB MAHMUD leadership in Sarawak is way TOO STRONG to be challenged. TAIB MAHMUD had been Sarawak CM for so many glory years & it just DOESN'T take some silly KUTUK CAMPAIGNING to bring him down. DAP needs to adopt a more CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACH to even start dreaming of a Sibu VICTORY.

6) Most Chinese TYCOONS in Sibu have STRONG CONNECTIONS with Taib Mahmud & the BN. These TYCOONS' MONEY & INFLUENCE is enough to help SUPP win by at least 70%-80% of SUPP's targeted votes. Pls. remember these TYCOONS are BUSINESSMEN & there are many, many SMALLER BUSINESSMEN in Sibu who depends on these BIG TYCOONS for a living.

7) 60% of Sibu Chinese are somehow related to the TRIADS or have TRIADS connection. Triads members goes by THOUSANDS & the DRAGON HEAD (leader) of these TRIADS are usually on Taib Mahmuds' side. Their activities & businesses are dependent on it. There are at least 2 MAIN TRIAD groups in Sibu with at least 8 Sub-branches from these 2 main Triad groups.

8) BN under the leadership of NAJIB had been giving INCENTIVES to Sibu of late. DAP are crying FOUL but I reckon DAP should just "Shut the FUCK up" & concentrate of coming-up with BETTER WAYS to WIN instead of just COMPLAINING like a CRY BABY.

***BOOKMARK this message!!!***

By the evening of 16th May 2010, The Election Commission will announce SUPP to be the WINNER with at least 2000 votes majority.

Nevertheless, "Happy Voting" to all Sibu voters!!!

hishamh said...

The growth is not a fluke, it's real.

By the same token, "growth" in 1Q is really a consequence of the recovery in trade and not from fiscal policy, and from the fact that 1Q 2009 was the bottom of the recession which makes 1Q 2010 numbers look good.

Tracking the numbers, actual government expenditure in 2009 was almost on par with government expenditure as announced in the 2009 budget i.e. no net increase.

Judging whether the stimulus packages had any impact really means judging whether the multiplier effects of increased public investment spending were greater than the decrease in public consumption spending.

Getting back to the "growth" story, from my point of view the economy has just about gotten back to its pre-crisis growth path, which means that growth from now on will be closer to Malaysia's norm.

Anonymous said...

10 per cent growth only, ka? You are a lousy spin doctor. Why not make it 3000 per cent?

Nstman

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr Rocky's Bru,

1. To answer your question, yes it could be a fluke. But I hope not for the sake of all Malaysians and the millions of immigrants. We need real, sustained growth.

2. Do not be fooled by the high quarterly growth because it grew from a very low base.

3. But it's a fine beginning. We must bring back long-term confidence in the economy. We are still suffering.

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

wah! surpassed china ?

BolehBird said...

I'm sorry, but I call bullshit on this one.

http://bolehbird.blogspot.com/2010/05/when-numbers-mean-nothing.html

Shiok Guy said...

Dear Bro

I must congratulate Malaysia for doing so well in last quarter.

I hope the momentum will carry on the second quarter, third and forth. Looking forward for more good news ahead.

Well Done Malaysia!

Regards
Shiok Guy

Anonymous said...

Economically I think najip didn't make any major cuckoo. Its the right direction. But more efforts must be done to make malaysia more competitive in the global arena for fdi. Let's face it. Malaysia is not that rosy at the moment. Except the two oils produce, we don't have much things to shout about. we can take baby steps in this, and I think ppl will understand this is not easy. But first things first. Cure our internal first. And the first thing to do that should be the priority is to eliminate racists like ibrahim ali from causing harm to the delicate racial balance we have here in malaysia.

Chi8

Anonymous said...

At age 60 many people still cannot get out of the mentality of counting their chickens before they are hatched.

Just an e.g. the Rgt is now 3.2 against the USD cf. 3.7 at the begining of the year. Big corporations like Petronas, Sime Darby etc. would have been sent "signals", thus creating an influx.

Then there is pump priminig pushing more "printed" dollars out in the streets. Meanwhile, the Greek/European currency crisis is not over and the US seems tottering.

So, the moral here is that the Emperor is still wearing no clothes, but he does seem to have many crows crowing for him as "Nuklear Najib" goes critical.

-GDP

Shiok Guy said...

Dear Bro

Can help to carry this? I know it might be from different camp, let put politic aside and help!

Malay Mail did carry my plight before about a center that closed down in PJ here...

http://mmail.com.my/content/love-child-drives-mission-save-autism-centre

and hope you can help to carry the following: -

http://shiokguy.blogspot.com/2010/05/evening-of-laughter-and-music-with-pck.html

Thank you on behalf of my two sons and all those suffer from autism

Regards
ShiokGuy

Anonymous said...

Dato,


Lari topik sikit. Ini pasal pembunuhan Altantuya.


Ada info baru. Altantuya dibunuh oleh Polis UTK yang menjadi bodyguard PM Dollah Badawi. Tidak ada siapa pun boleh arah UTK bodyguard PM kecuali PM atau pegawai dia.



Kita tahu pegawai PM tidak ada power, semua diganti oleh penasihat PM seperti Riong Kali dan sebegitu.


Riong Kali juga tuan punya restoran mewah di Bangsar (dia suruh semua korporat suratkhabar dekat Bangsar itu makan sana - company expense account - dia jadi kaya lagi).


Razak Baginda selalu makan dan minum bersama Riong Kali di restoran mewah itu. Riong Kali tahu pasal Altantuya jauh sebelum Altantuya dibunuh.



Siapa boleh arah UTK bodyguard PM 'pergi tolong Razak Baginda'? Hanya PM atau orang terdekat dgn PM boleh buat begitu.



Sampai hari ini, siapa pun tak tahu dari mana datangnya C4 itu.



Soalannya siapa yang paling banyak untung jika Altantuya dibunuh dan Razak Baginda serta Najib disabit terlibat? Sudah tentu bukan Najib. Najib akan rugi besar. Yang akan untung besar Riong Kali dan juga boss dia PM. Boleh hidup lama sikit.



Riong Kali sudah boleh nampak Dollah Badawi akan ditendang keluar. Dia akan rugi berjuta -juta. Jika nama Najib jadi busuk, Dollah dan Riong Kali akan selamat.



Kalau Altantuya mati disyakki dibunuh Najib, siapa untung dan siapa rugi?



So kita kena pikir baik2 Dato. Siapa bunuh Altantuya? Dari mana datangnya C4 itu? Di situlah letaknya jawapan siapa bunuh Altantuya.


Si vouz pleis Dato.

Singh Is Kinng said...

Being a layman, I'm observing growth as well, now gotta pay 10% extra for a plate of nasi kandar.

Anonymous said...

Good, now the monies can pass to Vincent Tan...

Wenger J Khairy said...

Rocky,

Any self respecting journalist worth his salt would know that this 10% growth being bandied about is the direct result of an extremely low base in 2009 1st Q. At that time global trade was at virtual standstill, the Dow was at 6,000. And the global economy was in crumbles.

Furthermore, the real economy supposedly contracted -2% last year. It would probably expand 4-5% this year, but that is due to the compelete reduction in stocks, a feat never seen in the last 10 yrs.

Najib's performance on the economy is mixed. That apple polishers statement claiming Najib's policy is the best since sliced bread should be taken with a lot of salt. As long as Tun's son continues to do damage to Malaysia's FDI position by not being gracious enough to resign from MITI, our FDI will continue to slump. Without FDI we will just drift along.. Tun's youngest son should resign immediately from MITI especially as the first q numbers for investment is the worst seen in a very long time.


Btw I do not know who your constant spinning is supposed to appeal too. The Malays are beholden to Tun Dr. Mahathir. The Non Malays to the DAP and PAS respectively. The moderates who want a peaceful and united Malaysia are very concerned that Tun is controlling Najib behind the scenes, so are reluctant and more or less sitting on the sidelines. As long as this perception exists, the PM cannot rally significant support.

Wenger J Khairy said...

Dato Kadir Jasin has the correct prognosis. Long term trend is still hazy. Trade alone is not a sufficient indicator as the contribution from trade is a meagre 10% because of the huge imports required to sustain our manufacturing exports. Add to that, the implict subsidy granted for energy in the way of subsidized gas. The chemicals sector has been talked about as potential sector of growth - which is rubbish because the chemical industry is extremely energy intensive and we are still energy deficient leading to our wise PM deciding that its time we go nuclear. I can only shudder.

Don't look at Malaysia. Look at other countries. FDI comes in and the real economy grows rapidly. Once the FDI tap slows down, the growth in the economy is highly cyclical and generally follows the price of commodities.

The PM perhaps understands this but right now is unable to execute a strategy to first instil domestic confidence on a sustainable basis. If the local businessman won't invest, what makes it likely that the big foreign investors would do so?

The reason: A mixed signal. The PM wants to reform, Tun Dr. Mahathir wants to regress. People are confused. Is this reformation or regression. We don't know. So we send our money overseas and that is why we have such a huge capital outflow. Malaysian businessmen rather trust the communist regime of Vietnam and the fabled tales of growth there than invest locally because of all the meddling done by one ex-Prime Minister who just refuses to go away.

Anonymous said...

latuk rok,

manyak pandai bodek punya olang !

bila bolih jadi dansri rok ?

Anonymous said...

http://pray-for-malaysia.blogspot.com/2010/05/proof-najib-abdul-razak-election.html

Even if the growth is 5000% what the fcuk for?

This arsehole will squandered away all the miilions...

Bribing hulu selangor chinese with RM3million and now making RM5millions illegal deal with sibu chinese...

Hei Ibrahim! see how the chinese can make this arshole lick their balls... "U want Robert Lau, then you kautau to our demand"

Calling himself a pm material? LOL!

Anonymous said...

10.1% ! BETUL KE OR WISHFUL THINKING?

BUT THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS THE TRUTH.

HOW HE BRIBE THE VOTERS OPENLY... AND ASKED MACC GO FUCK THEMSELVES.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2-lke4lHfo

Anonymous said...

Dato',
saya naik mual bila tengok sikap orang Malaysia. Tiada penghargaan diberikan apabila ekonomi berkembang 10% tapi dicemuh pulak. Hebat sangat ke depa semua. Sepatutnya Najib Dan barisan kepimpinan beliau dipuji Dan diberi galakan. Memang betul data bandingan yang digunakan adalah rendah akibat kemelut ekonomi sebelumnya tetapi untuk pencapaian pertumbuhan 10% memerlukan perancangan teliti Dan perlaksanaan yang mantap.
Tahniah DS Najib Dan teruskan perjuangan Kami sentiasa bersama YAB. Sikit-sikit lama-lama jadi bukit. Jangan Jadi macam Anwar, sakit-sakit tapi main Burit.

Oleh Minda Cergas

Anonymous said...

Dato',
saya naik mual bila tengok sikap orang Malaysia. Tiada penghargaan diberikan apabila ekonomi berkembang 10% tapi dicemuh pulak. Hebat sangat ke depa semua. Sepatutnya Najib Dan barisan kepimpinan beliau dipuji Dan diberi galakan. Memang betul data bandingan yang digunakan adalah rendah akibat kemelut ekonomi sebelumnya tetapi untuk pencapaian pertumbuhan 10% memerlukan perancangan teliti Dan perlaksanaan yang mantap.
Tahniah DS Najib Dan teruskan perjuangan Kami sentiasa bersama YAB. Sikit-sikit lama-lama jadi bukit. Jangan Jadi macam Anwar, sakit-sakit tapi main Burit.

Oleh Minda Cergas

donplaypuks® said...

Bro

Singapore also just announced a staggering 32.1% GDP growth for Y-on -Y 2010 growth!!

All this means is that the following the 2008 recession and low GDP index base for 2009, many countries will be declaring these freakish one off statistics!!

So, I wouldn't go out and order that brand new Ferrari just yet.

What is important is the GDP figures over a whole year before we pass judgement on PM Najib's "trained economist" performance and not exult and be taken in by stats released with one eye on impending by-elections!!

Consider also that just before GE 2008, Mamak Robokop (Ex-Bank Negara $12 billion forex trading loser) declared a 40% GDP growth over the previous 4 years, something not confirmed by anyone since!! So, I suspect that this UMNO/BN Govt is not above tweaking the stats when it suits them!!

The current 10.1% Y-on-Y figure is also clouded by the gains against the US$ against which the ringgit has apprecaited by 6.43% (3.42 in Dec 2009 vs 3.20 March 2010).

So, let's see sustained figures before we celebrate. The real signs of sustainable growth will be when we see increased employment, capex in factories, output and exports and contained low inflation as well as recovery in our major export markets like USA, China, India, UK etc.

dpp
we are all of 1 race, the Human Race

malaysia_truly_asia said...


Anonymous said...
And you believe what Bernama has to say?

The only person Malaysians should be grateful to for saving our economy is Barrack Obama.

Coming into his first term, he basically pulled off a miracle. Which means we did not go through too much pain.

If you think I am talking cock and bull, ask any corporate businessman worth his/her salt. Ibrahim Ali doesn't count.

1:30 AM



mamat ni terlebih tengok CNN kot, banyak termakan propaganda barat. biasalah, yang tak elok semuanya dalam Malaysia, yang cantik-cantik semuanya overseas punya, jam ciplak China pun cantik.

Rocky's Bru said...

DPP,

32.1 percent YoY expansion?!

Congrats, neighbours. Funny thing is, that is probably what some Malaysians need to see to believe that the 10.1 percent is actually plausible!

Bah.

p.s. Funny no 2 is your mention of the Ferrari. I have been eying the Acer Ferrari, red cover, 7 hours battery time, for a while now. I'm thinking that with the economy looking up, I may want to convert from the Panasonic Toughbook.

Which means, I may go to the BUM 2010 with (not IN) a Ferrari!

mohd ali ismail said...

It looked like Najib has managed to steer Malaysia into a better time ahead only question is whether it will sustain.With Sime Darby Petronas making dismal showings,what next instore,God only knows.

monsterball said...

When Rocky does not report about the Sibu election...means bad news for Najib.
Right now..DAP leads by 2236 votes with 75% counted.

Anonymous said...

Jerry Chin a.k.a TOKZ,,,

You TALK COCK,,!!!!!

TAIB MAHMUD and NAJIB kalah loh,,!!!! OLANG SIBU kasi ajar PEMIMPIN KITA,,!!!!

What goes up MUST come down.


-MOUTH TALK COCK SHORT-

Anonymous said...

Dear TOKZ,
In a Chinese majority area, the Chinese will vote for the Chinese candidate if the opponent is non Chinese.
If both are Chinese, they will vote for the Opposition.
This is how it goes with the Chinese.

Only in Non Chinese majorities you might see a BN Chinese candidate win.
Well maybe not anymore.

Don'tBeSoRacistLahAhBeng.

hishamh said...

Wenger,

I've generally found that most journalists are generalists, and while they might know the mechanics of base effects, they won't know the larger implications of it.

Neither it seems, do some of our local economists, largely I suspect due to an unhealthy short term focus on stock market doings rather than the economy at large.

Also, while I suffered through some truly stupid journo questions and misconceptions over the years, I've also come to realise that sometimes the questions come from a desire for reporting "news" where you need to have verifiable sources, rather than editorialising where you can just put out your own opinion.

donplaypuks,

That 32.1% figure for Singapore is calculated based on quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised (warning: pdf link):

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/advgdp1q2010.pdf

This is data that is not reported by Malaysia, which only reports quarter on the same quarter last year (my estimate for q-o-q,sa,an Q1 2010 for Malaysia is approximately 7.1%, versus 12.9% in Q4 2009 in log terms). In any case, Singapore's 1Q growth is largely an artifact of a q-o-q dip in GDP in 4Q 2009 (-2.8%).

The y-o-y figure that can be directly compared to Malaysia's reported figure is 13.1%.

Re: GDP growth pre-GE2008, I suspect our esteemed ex-FMII was talking about nominal growth. If we take the relevant sample as 2007-2003, then the rise in nominal GDP was 52.8% compared to a real GDP rise of 26.4%.

Also, real GDP data is adjusted by a variety of price indices, including detailed export and import prices, which means that the appreciation in the Ringgit for 1Q 2010 is fully accounted for.

the reader said...

its not a fluke...Najib is Superman

Anonymous said...

Dear Fellow Investor:

Are you reassured by the recent stock market rally?

With all due respect, don't believe the numbers.

No, I don't mean to suggest the data are deliberately false... they're just an illusion.

But first, I want to be clear. I'm not a gloom-and-doom guy. You don't earn more than three decades of double-digit returns for your investors with a negative attitude.

My name is Doug Fabian. I write Successful Investing, a newsletter that's been helping loyal, satisfied investors grow and protect their wealth for 32 years.

I try to keep politics out of my advisory reports and alerts. But recent developments make keeping silent impossible, indeed, unthinkable.

What was essentially a banking/credit crisis has been mismanaged into a full-blown, fundamentals-driven, economic disaster.

But the big shock looms just over the horizon -- certainly by year's end.

https://www.fabian.com/offers/products/si-sunday-specials-5-16/

Anonymous said...

Hisham H, you writing is boring and I am delighted to know that your Zodiac Year is MONKEY. Like they say is if you pay BANANAs, you get MONKEYS.
Looks like Najib is not paying enough, thus the MONKEY.

Its me Boss.(heheheh)

Wenger J Khairy said...

Anon 10:48,
Your talking absolute rubbish! HishamH is one of the better bloggers around. I respect him greatly for his contribution to overall learning. This gentleman took time to explain things - his article on multiple regression, tutorial on Gretl and explanation of out sample modelling is one of the best resources around, in the whole world wide web.

All of Hisham H's analysis and interpretation is backed by data. I respect him greatly and am grateful for a lot of his postings.

Maybe your trying to pull his leg, if so, then its a private joke between yourself and him.

But if you intend to insult HishamH I say your an insolent, ignorant cad who is a pathetic low life.

Anonymous said...

Why everyone quoting RAM? Kan Dr M da kato, Rating agency x blh diharap.

Its me Boss.

Anonymous said...

10.1% 1st Q growth? wow!!! is that our people mentality growth or what?

3rd world mind

Anonymous said...

hahahah .. you got a deal with the boss ah ? Why everything is ok one ah ?

Oh , the understanding is very simple only... you write good about me , I will take good care of you.

Fair isn't it ? So what the fuss ?

SUREORNOT

donplaypuks® said...

I don't know about others, but I find Hisahm's and Wenger KJ's grasp of economics to be pretty good indeed; possibly they are economists themselves.

I'm no economist whatsoever and the little I know does not have the theoretical and practical depth that can be found in Hisham's and Wengers researched opinions.

We may not agree on everything but credit must be given where credit is due!!

dpp
we are all of 1 race, the hUman Race

Ahmad Syafiq said...

I'm sorry Rocky, but the way they calculate economic growth is misleading to say the least.

If we look at statistics, Malaysia has a real GDP of RM133,899 million for Q1 (2010), which represents a 10.1% growth compared to the previous year's quarter (or Q1[2009]), which is roughly RM121,615 million.

However, if we look at another perspective, the real GDP for Q4 (2009) was RM137,463 million. This reduction of (137,463 - 133,899) RM3,564 million from Q4 (2009) actually leads to a decline in real GDP by 2.6% (or -2.6%). So, we compare the real GDP for Q1 (2010) and Q4 (2009), we are actually in decline.

It's easy to bloat that we managed 10.1% growth for this quarter, but that is only true when it is based on SAME quarters (which in this case is Q1 [2009] and Q1 [2010]). Can we say the same about comparing Q4 [2009] and Q1 [2010]? NO.

Therefore, we must reform our calculation for real GDP growth. Instead of calculating based on SAME quarter (ex. Q1[09] --> Q1[10]), why not we all calculate growth by quarter to quarter (ex. Q4 --> Q1, Q1 --> Q2, Q2 --> Q3 & Q3 --> Q4) instead?

A food for thought Rocky, especially for those in the Economic Planning Unit.

hishamh said...

@Wenger and don,

Thanks for the defense, but it's not necessary. I've been on the www a long time, and one of the first principles you learn is - Don't Feed The Trolls!

@donplaypuks,

Feel free to drop by:

http://econsmalaysia.blogspot.com

@Ahmad Syafiq,

I think that was the point I was trying to make.

The internationally accepted standard for measuring growth is quarter on previous quarter, although the data series must also be seasonally adjusted and annualised.

The difficulty in our case (and China for that matter) is mathematically accounting for CNY and Aidil Fitri which follow a lunar year calender, while standard seasonal adjustment packages (X11, X12, TRAMO/SEATS), adjust data based on their reported frequency, which follows the solar calender. However, Singapore manages to do it so the problem isn't insurmountable.

You can find a discussion of the different methodologies and how they impact growth measurement here, and the actual measurement formulas here. Analysis of the current numbers can be found here.

Anonymous said...

Wenger khairy wrote : Your talking absolute rubbish! HishamH is one of the better bloggers around. I respect him greatly for his contribution to overall learning.
But if you intend to insult HishamH I say your an insolent, ignorant cad who is a pathetic low life.

That is your opinion. If people can respect your opinion even wjen they dont agree with you, I find it amusing that you cant do the same. That is sad. Traits of a Pakatan supporter, no GAME N SHIP at ALL.

Its me Boss.

Anonymous said...

A huge wealth gap has opened up between black and white people in the US over the past quarter of a century – a difference sufficient to put two children through university – because of racial discrimination and economic policies that favour the affluent.

A typical white family is now five times richer than its African-American counterpart of the same class, according to a report released today by Brandeis University in Massachusetts.

White families typically have assets worth $100,000 (£69,000), up from $22,000 in the mid-1980s. African-American families' assets stand at just $5,000, up from around $2,000.

A quarter of black families have no assets at all. The study monitored more than 2,000 families since 1984.

Anonymous said...

Jan-Mar '10 was 10.1% growth from Jan-Mar '09. What is so surprising? Jan-Mar '09 has very low base. Global financial crisis started in Oct 08 and up to Sept 09, output was down. Anyone with basic maths skills (no need all these Married But Available MBA from RAM to tell me) using a very low base will give very high growth rate in 2010.

Ask any bizman out there and they will tell you Malaysian economy is neither dead or alive. Far from 10.1% growth the garment is bragging about.

donplaypuks® said...

Technically, a recession is said to have occurred when there have been two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP).

This being the case, I think it's only fair the Govt presents both the Y-o-Y and increase/decline over the 2 previous quarters which is something the markets will be studying very, very closly.

If as Syafiq says there was actually a decline of of 2.6% in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009, we may not be quite out of the woods yet. Maybe these numbers are showing smaller and smaller declines indicating some sort of recovery in the short term. But we need the stats before more can be said.

Over to you guys - Hisham, Wenger KJ and Syafiq!!

dpp
we are all of 1 race, the Human Race

hishamh said...

@donplaypuks

Actually, if you look at the raw data, GDP almost always falls in the first quarter of the year against the fourth quarter of the year before.

It's not hard to figure out why - holiday season, year-end bonuses, and businesses tryng to meet their sales/production/spending targets for the year. Output goes up and so does spending. Trade also rises to meet demand from the developed world, since the holiday season is when most consumer spending is concentrated.

That's why I keep mentioning seasonal adjustments, because since you know that GDP is going to fall anyway, what becomes important is figuring out whether the fall in GDP is greater or lesser than the seasonal effect, i.e. did the economy actually grow relative to where it should be.

For the last ten years, Q1 GDP has a seasonal factor of about 0.97-0.98, while Q4 has a seasonal factor of 1.01+. That means that if you see any drop between Q4 and Q1 of less than 3%-4%, then the economy has grown.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Blow your horns or trumpets or "seruling" or whatever on your 1st Q growth. I am still eating the same old rotten food everyday at ridiculous prices and struggling to pay my bills at the end of the month, whilst you go on freebies ride on giving away millions of Ringgits of taxpayers monies or from your special loot.

You are no economist or miracle man Mr. Najib neither are you Mr. Barrack Obama. Wait until the year end and then compare your figures from year to year and see whether you got your sums correct.

Increase the GDP of the nation and then talk about all this grand figures you are expecting us to believe.

"TakenforaRide"

Anonymous said...

najib seems to get it right so far. now, im waiting for him to make tough decisions to propel msia further...slowly do away with subsidies, implement GST, move from cheap labour intensive economy to machine/tech based econ...

farha