Why, ultimately, Johor election is a victory for Anwar's Unity Government

July 15: Barisan Nasional, the coalition defeated at long last in the general elections eight years ago, won 48 out of 56 of the state seats in Johor last Saturday, a victory so resounding that even the most seasoned analysts imagined they could see the phoenix rising from the ashes, the beginning of the Blue Wave, the revival of Umno. 

They've also decided, in their panic or perhaps in their excitement, that Johor's outcome was a blow for Pakatan Harapan, a bad omen for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

My ex Business Times colleague P. Gunasesgaram, in his column for Malaysiakini, was so bold as to even write off not just DAP and PKR’s fate in the next general election but also Anwar”s chances of becoming prime minister for a second term. 

“If Anwar reads the tea leaves right, he will want to go full term and retire,” Guna writes in Sombre, sober reflections on Johor elections.

Well, now, that’s where I beg to differ and I’m not the only one. A veteran journalist (who, with Guna and I, worked at Balai Berita together during the 1980s), did the math:

“BN won 48 seats and PH won 8 in Johor state, right. At Federal level, BN and PH are part of the Unity Governnent. So, excuse me if I see it as it really is: a clean sweep of Johor by these two major components of the Unity Government, yes, because it was a clean sweep, indeed.

"Together BN and PH won all 56 seats in Johor and together the two have totally obliterated the Opposition.” 

The Unity Government, or Kerajaan Perpaduan, was formed at the heels of the 2022 general elections after no single party had enough seats on its own to form the federal government.

Branded later on as Madani, the Unity Government consists primarily of four major political coalitions of political friends and foes: Pakatan Harapan or PH, led by Anwar himself; Barisan Nasional, led by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi; Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), whose leader Abang Jo is also the Sarawak Premier; and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), led by Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor. 

In the Dewan Rakyat, these four coalitions collectively control 141 seats out of the 222 total seats: Anwar’s PH 82 seats. Zahid’s BN 30 seats, Abang Jo’s GPS 23 seats and Hajiji’s GRS 6 seats.

Add former Sabah  Chief Minister Shafie Apdal’s Warisan party’s three seats and other indepedent MPs who have pledged allegiance to Anwar, the total seats that the Unity government control in the Dewan Rakyat surpass 150. 

The Unity Government’s main opposition are the parties that formed the Perikatan Nasional coalition, the branchild of former PM Muhyiddin Yasin. They include Bersatu, PAS, Pejuang, MIPP, Gerakan and Wawasan. Others against the Unity Government  are Muda and Bersama. All these parties contested in Johor but did not win a single seat. Nihil. Zero. Habuk pun tarak. 

To remind you how badly they did in Johor, all 15 candidates from the overly hyped-up Bersama party led by the overly-confident Rafizi Ramli did not just lose but each one had to forfeit his/her RM5,000 deposit for failing to secure one-eight of the votes cast. Read 55 candidates lose deposits, including all Bersama hopefuls.

Despite this, Guna is still sure that Rafizi’s Bersama will “take votes away from PKR and DAP especially in urban areas” at the next GE.

"It will take them at least until the next polls before they can become a threatening third force with their laudable and very reasonable Malaysian approach - the only one likely to give long-term benefits to all Malaysians”.

Well, we have our own views on Bersama being "the only one" and on Rafizi's own chances at the next GE after the major flop in Johor but I will leave that be for another day, another posting. Perhaps.

For now, the most fantastic takeaway from Johor has to be the bragging by PAS, that the party was actually instrumental in helping Umno rise from the ashes in Johor. Something like "we died so Umno could live", in the name of Malay Unity, no less.

Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz, despite his youth, fortunately, was wise to this ploy all along and had maintained, during the run up to last Saturday’s polls, that his new government, should BN won, would not include PAS.

Not all are as wise. Dr Akmal Salleh, the Umno Youth leader, is known to have said he would welcome PAS-Umno collaborations in Negri Sembilan, which holds its state elections on August 1.

Personally, I hope Dr Akmal will come around and waste no more of his huge potential, and our time, on this so-calledl Malay Unity.

The Malays are older than Christ and we have been in this region longer than the other races, yes, so we are not about to fall for this Malay Unity or Malays-vote-Malays ploy.

Going forward, analysts view Negri Sembilan's elections as a continuation of the tussle between BN and PH: if BN wins, it's the downfall of PKR-DAP and Anwar Ibrahim buf if PH wins, some people will say the Malays in NS are doomed.

But at the end of the day, this is what will happen: the Negri Sembilan election will see PH and BN, once again, kick the asses of PAS and its partners in Perikatan Nasional. As in Johor, you can be100 per cent sure Negri Sembilan will remain with PMX's Unity Government.

And when the inevitable happens, when Johor and Negri Sembilan both are under the two biggest coalitions in the Kerajaan Perpaduan, how is that going to put paid to PM Anwar Ibrahim's chances of a second term?