Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Revised Bajet 2015: We won't see twin deficits, says Wahid Omar:

AWO's 1-2-3 on the revised 2015 National Budget/What you can do to help the nation 
Jan 21: If the PM's looking for a Finance Minister, he need not see beyond Abdul Wahid Omar: the dude is straight (as in frank and honest), bijak bistari (which is more than pandai or mere clever) and incorruptible (just ask your corporate player friend). His take on the Bajet revision and consequent economic outlook for the year is cautious but confidence. Reassuring, Sure.
We need that, I'm sure you'd agree.
I quote the Minister in the Prime Minister's Department verbatim:

Assalamualaikum ... here's my '1-2-3' take on PM's announcement on the state of the economy : 

1) The drop in oil price from USD100/barrel to USD55 (expected average for 2015) will result in net reduction in Govt revenue of RM8.3b . 
This means without new measures, our fiscal deficit will widen to 3.9% from the 3.0% budgeted in 2015. 
With new measures, we expect revised fiscal deficit of 3.2% which is still credible as it is lower than the 3.5% deficit for 2014 and in line with our Fiscal Reform & Consolidation strategy.

2) Lower oil price is generally good for the global economy with The World Bank suggesting a positive impact of 0.5% improvement to global GDP growth. 
However, for net oil & gas exporting countries like Malaysia, the impact will be negative despite taking into account the favourable impact on increased demand for Malaysia's manufactured goods & services, improved tourism proceeds & lower cost of production. 
Accordingly we have revised our 2015 GDP growth forecast downwards by from 5%-6% to 4.5%-5.5% . 
Such growth rate is still credible considering it is still much higher than The World Bank's global GDP growth forecast of 3.0% . 

3) Another aspect of the economy closely tracked by analysts is whether Malaysia will experience a current account deficit in our Balance of Payments. 
In 2013, Malaysia recorded current account surplus of RM37b (3.9% of GDP). 
This is expected to improve to some RM50b (5% of GDP) in 2014. 
The drop in oil price will be partially mitigated by, among others, higher exports of manufactured goods. 
Therefore we are still expected to record a current account surplus in 2015 albeit lower at 2-3% of GDP. 
We are therefore not expected to experience a twin deficit situation as feared by some analysts. 

So overall, Malaysia has taken the right steps to review our economic & fiscal position and outlined the necessary strategies & proactive measures to keep the economy growing in 2015 at a respectable rate of 4.5-5.5%, continue with fiscal reform & consolidation with an acceptable fiscal deficit of 3.2%, sustain a current account surplus position and maintain development expenditure budget of RM48.5b for benefit the people. 

What can you do to help this beloved country of ours? 

1) Live within your means. Optimise your expenditure. Keep spending if you can afford it.  Dont borrow if you dont have the capacity to repay. 

2) Invest domestically. With the strong dollar, defer your overseas investments. In fact, this is probably a good time to bring back your monies from abroad to realise some gains. 

3) Think positive. These are challenging times. But we are clear on what we need to do to ride through this period of market volatility. Just follow through & do the right things. InsyaAllah, God willing, we will succeed. 


12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good one.
I am Chinese and I think we need to bring to the front Malay leaders who are wise and considerate in this country.
We have absolute no problem in following thier leadership.

charleskiwi said...

Anon 10.56 am

Can you find a lion in Malaysia, except in the Zoo ? As predicted this tumbling of oil prices is still bringing revenue into the country but just you wait and see there are a lot more woes coming. Now it is time to see the results of what the half breed Mahathir has done over the 22 years of his rule and the policies he implemented ! Malaysia has not put aside the billions for the rainy days the black gold has brought in.
Najib is just trying to justify the jet he has when he said that Malaysia is not in a crisis.
Do you wait till there is no more black gold before you call it a crisis ? Are having a deficit budget and having to borrow to survival not enough to deem the country is in crisis. What is ? Still want to have a private jet around at your, Rosmah and all the Umno morons' disposal ?

Anonymous said...

What a dud. If there's meritocracy, he won't even get this job, but let's let bygones be bygones. The test of whether this gomen has the interests of the people at heart is through sacrifices the leaders make. Have the leaders sacrificed anything at all ??

Just a bunch of wankers trying to con the man on the street.

Anonymous said...

Latuk,

Two posts in a week! It's a veritable blogging frenzy by your standards…gurau aje...hee hee...

Sadly:

"If the PM's looking for a Finance Minister, he need not see beyond Abdul Wahid Omar: the dude is straight (as in frank and honest), bijak bistari (which is more than pandai or mere clever) and incorruptible (just ask your corporate player friend). His take on the Bajet revision and consequent economic outlook for the year is cautious but confidence."

Parking aside your bad Englandian-ish (it should be "confident", not "confidence"), isn't this the same Wahid Omar who aimed an AK47 at his own feet over household income?

http://www.malaysia-today.net/wahids-statistics-again/

http://www.institutrakyat.org/governments-household-income-figures-dont-add-up-br1m-overpaid/

http://malaysiansmustknowthetruth.blogspot.com/2014/09/rm5900-average-household-income-wahid.html

"Previously, the government boasted that BR1M had been given to those households earning less than RM3,000 per month, representing 5.2 million or 80% of all Malaysian households in 2012. Yesterday in Parliament, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Abdul Wahid Omar disclosed that the number of households earning less than RM3,000 per month only amount to 2 million, or 28.7% of all households. Did 3.2 million households suddenly clear the RM3,000 per month threshold?"

Your hero never answered this point halfway convincingly, and went back to hiding under one of the 12 desks in the bloated PMO (any reduction there? No, didn't think so.)

Where is the bijak bistari PM going to get the next dose of BR1M millions? Certainly not stuffed in a suitcase from Hong Kong. Or...

Anonymous said...

Tun Daim & Tun Mahathir adalah DUA Perompak, Penyangak, Penipu, Pemutar Belit yang telah menzalimi seluruh Rakyat Malaysia dgn membawa keluar BERBILLION-BILLION Wang Rakyat. Kalau Penyangak Daim membawa lari ke berbagai bank di Eropah dan Afrika, Mahazalim, MahaFiraun Mahathir membawanya ke Guam. Oleh kerana jumlah banyak, maka mudahlah bagi mereka memiliki Bank-Bank dinegara tersebut, dgn proksi-proksi terpilih, khususnya Pedagang Matawang yang dilantik oleh KeDUA-DUA Penyanggak Terbesar dlm sejarah Malaysia Moden.
Lim Kit Siang sebagai Ketua Pembangkang di era Kegemilangan Kerajaan BN/UMNO 2/3, telah membawa topic “THE BANK NEGARA RM30 BILLION LOSSES SCANDAL” di Parlimen sekitar tahun 1994, namun keunggulan 2/3 Majoriti, skandal tersebut lenyap begitu saja, Lim Kit Siang tidak lagi mengungkitkan sehngga ke hari ini.
Hansard Parlimen Skandal lapor pd tahun 1989 Bank Negara telah dikritik hebat oleh Pihak Berkuasa Kewangan Barat kerana berspekulasi KETERLALUAN ke atas matawang Yen dan US Dollar di mana Group 7 Negara Maju cuba menstabilkan pasaran kewangan ketika itu. 1991, Reuter melaporkan Bank Negara memiliki suatu kuasa dominan ke atas pasaran kewangan & digelar sbg “PEMBULI PASARAN KEWANGAN”.
Kapasiti Bank Negara lakukan spekulasi US50 Million satu lot berbanding pasaran normal berkapasiti US5 Million, Jepun saja yg memiliki kapasiti tersebut dan hanya spekulasi satu atau dua kali dalam masa satu tahun. Berbanding Bank Negara melakukan BERBILLION dalam masa satu hari.
Teknik spekulasi pada US50 Million pada 2 Bank Ternama dan kemudian mengulangi spekulasi dengan kadar sama 10 minit kemudian. Kemudian Namk Negara bertukar tempat dan melakukan spekulasi lagi 24 jam sehari dengan jumlah wang BERBILLION-BILION.
SOALNYA JIKA KERUGIAN YANG DICATAT HANYA RM30 BILLION, kemana wang-wang Rakyat BERBILLION-BILLION yang lainnya pergi? Sedangkan Rezab Bank Negara ketika itu hanyalah US20 Billion dan Tidak berubah spt lapor DS Anwar di Parlimen?
Kejadian berlaku di zaman Penyanggak Daim sbg MENTERI KEWANGAN dan Mahazalim Mahathir sbg PERDANA MENTERI, manakala Ketua Spekulasi Kewangan di Bank Negara ialah Nor Mohamad Yaacob. Nor Nohammad Yaakob masih di dlm Kerajaan, menutup rapat Rahsia Besar ini, di Bank Negara, Mahazalim MahaFiraun Mahathir arah Zeti Aziz, simpannya dlm peti besi. Zeti Aziz, bukannya cekap & pandai manapon mengendalikan urusan Kewangan/Bank Negara, tapi TIADA SESIAPA PON yang mampu mengugat kedudukkannya. Mahazalim Mahathir akan cepat memintas/memotong sesiapa saja yang berani kacau “CARETAKER GUNDEK” utk jaga Rahsia Besarnya.
Hanya Penyanggak Perompak, Lanun Daim dan Mahazalim MahaFiraun Mahathir sahaja yang mampu menjawab persoalan ini. Sila rujuk artikel “the bank negara rm30 billion forex losses scandal”.
http://www.limkitsiang.com/archive/2004/jan04/lks2837.htm
https://wtfreport.wordpress.com/2011/12/12/the-forex-scandal-in-early-90s/
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2012/06/03/nor-the-main-culprit-behind-forex-scandal/
http://www.limkitsiang.com/archive/2006/july06/lks3966.htm
http://blog.limkitsiang.com/publication/
https://akupeduliapa.wordpress.com/2012/06/06/rm30-billion-bank-negaras-forex-losses-in-1992/
http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/5067-Finance-Bank-Negara-Forex-Loss-Mahathir-has-to-answer-Lim-Kit-Siang
Lim Kit Siang, DS Anwar Ibrahim dan Rafizi Ramli desak di siasat Penyanggak Daim, Mahazalim Mahathir, dari mana kekayaan yg mereka dapat asalnya dari mana?,Bawa kpd World Bank, IMF, ICC, Bank Of England, FSA, Federal Reserve. “SEPANDAI-PANDAI TUPAI MELOMPAT, AKHIRNYA AKAN JATUH KE TANAH JUA” akhirnya terbongkar jua.

RD. said...

I don't know why Kiwi hates Dr.M so much. I just hope he does not hate Mamaks like as what Evangelist DAP is doing to them in Penang.

konfiyuzzzzz said...

Aik pelik gila? Am i the only one that heard najib said that we are a NET IMPORT for petroleum?

jadi sapa yg menipu sebenanye?

Anonymous said...

What a bunch of ungrateful citizens and armchair critics.I bet most of them are the so called intelectual urbanites who once branded the rural people stupid for voting BN.I really wish that Malaysia really bankcrupt and let see how they survive.They have been enjoying life for the past years from what the govt pro active actions esp in the field of economic of the country and yet have the guts to condemn as much as they like.We sould support the govt of the day and have confidence to those entrusted to do the job.Of course the risks exist but for the record from past experience Malaysia managed to avoid economic disaster to the extend of bankcruptcy.Do they really believe that the present Oppo will do better to face the crisis?I bet before the 100 days completed they will be banging each other heads on who will be the PM and you can see the greatest nepotism being adopted whereby from Husband wife,daughters,daddy and inlaws in the cabinet lineout.In no time MEGERAN will be activate and Martial Law will be imposed.Is this what we want?.

Penggemar wahid said...

Hi rocky. How's the spinning going? Can u make me a sweater??

Winks and much love

berasiam said...

KALAU benar sekalipun, SPRM tidak punya kuasa untuk ambl tindakan. Dah terlebih tempoh masa yang dibenarkan oleh Akta yang digubal dan diluluskan oleh Anwar Ibrahim semasa memangku jawatan PM.

berasiam said...

Bila masa gomen bagi subsidi petroleum sebenarnya? Nett exporter kan

Anonymous said...

konfiyuzzzzz,

Malaysia is exporter of crude but net importer of petroleum products. We import petroleum products more than we export crude