Why, ultimately, Johor election is a victory for Anwar's Unity Government

July 15: Barisan Nasional, the coalition defeated at long last in the general elections eight years ago, won 48 out of 56 of the state seats in Johor last Saturday, a victory so resounding that even the most seasoned analysts imagined they could see the phoenix rising from the ashes, the beginning of the Blue Wave, the revival of Umno. 

They've also decided, in their panic or perhaps in their excitement, that Johor's outcome was a blow for Pakatan Harapan, a bad omen for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

My ex Business Times colleague P. Gunasesgaram, in his column for Malaysiakini, was so bold as to even write off not just DAP and PKR’s fate in the next general election but also Anwar”s chances of becoming prime minister for a second term. 

“If Anwar reads the tea leaves right, he will want to go full term and retire,” Guna writes in Sombre, sober reflections on Johor elections.

Well, now, that’s where I beg to differ and I’m not the only one. A veteran journalist (who, with Guna and I, worked at Balai Berita together during the 1980s), did the math:

“BN won 48 seats and PH won 8 in Johor state, right. At Federal level, BN and PH are part of the Unity Governnent. So, excuse me if I see it as it really is: a clean sweep of Johor by these two major components of the Unity Government, yes, because it was a clean sweep, indeed.

"Together BN and PH won all 56 seats in Johor and together the two have totally obliterated the Opposition.” 

The Unity Government, or Kerajaan Perpaduan, was formed at the heels of the 2022 general elections after no single party had enough seats on its own to form the federal government.

Branded later on as Madani, the Unity Government consists primarily of four major political coalitions of political friends and foes: Pakatan Harapan or PH, led by Anwar himself; Barisan Nasional, led by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi; Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), whose leader Abang Jo is also the Sarawak Premier; and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), led by Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor. 

In the Dewan Rakyat, these four coalitions collectively control 141 seats out of the 222 total seats: Anwar’s PH 82 seats. Zahid’s BN 30 seats, Abang Jo’s GPS 23 seats and Hajiji’s GRS 6 seats.

Add former Sabah  Chief Minister Shafie Apdal’s Warisan party’s three seats and other indepedent MPs who have pledged allegiance to Anwar, the total seats that the Unity government control in the Dewan Rakyat surpass 150. 

The Unity Government’s main opposition are the parties that formed the Perikatan Nasional coalition, the branchild of former PM Muhyiddin Yasin. They include Bersatu, PAS, Pejuang, MIPP, Gerakan and Wawasan. Others against the Unity Government  are Muda and Bersama. All these parties contested in Johor but did not win a single seat. Nihil. Zero. Habuk pun tarak. 

To remind you how badly they did in Johor, all 15 candidates from the overly hyped-up Bersama party led by the overly-confident Rafizi Ramli did not just lose but each one had to forfeit his/her RM5,000 deposit for failing to secure one-eight of the votes cast. Read 55 candidates lose deposits, including all Bersama hopefuls.

Despite this, Guna is still sure that Rafizi’s Bersama will “take votes away from PKR and DAP especially in urban areas” at the next GE.

"It will take them at least until the next polls before they can become a threatening third force with their laudable and very reasonable Malaysian approach - the only one likely to give long-term benefits to all Malaysians”.

Well, we have our own views on Bersama being "the only one" and on Rafizi's own chances at the next GE after the major flop in Johor but I will leave that be for another day, another posting. Perhaps.

For now, the most fantastic takeaway from Johor has to be the bragging by PAS, that the party was actually instrumental in helping Umno rise from the ashes in Johor. Something like "we died so Umno could live", in the name of Malay Unity, no less.

Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz, despite his youth, fortunately, was wise to this ploy all along and had maintained, during the run up to last Saturday’s polls, that his new government, should BN won, would not include PAS.

Not all are as wise. Dr Akmal Salleh, the Umno Youth leader, is known to have said he would welcome PAS-Umno collaborations in Negri Sembilan, which holds its state elections on August 1.

Personally, I hope Dr Akmal will come around and waste no more of his huge potential, and our time, on this so-calledl Malay Unity.

The Malays are older than Christ and we have been in this region longer than the other races, yes, so we are not about to fall for this Malay Unity or Malays-vote-Malays ploy.

Going forward, analysts view Negri Sembilan's elections as a continuation of the tussle between BN and PH: if BN wins, it's the downfall of PKR-DAP and Anwar Ibrahim buf if PH wins, some people will say the Malays in NS are doomed.

But at the end of the day, this is what will happen: the Negri Sembilan election will see PH and BN, once again, kick the asses of PAS and its partners in Perikatan Nasional. As in Johor, you can be100 per cent sure Negri Sembilan will remain with PMX's Unity Government.

And when the inevitable happens, when Johor and Negri Sembilan both are under the two biggest coalitions in the Kerajaan Perpaduan, how is that going to put paid to PM Anwar Ibrahim's chances of a second term?

Deja vu as ringgit touches 3.80

I had a moment of deja vu when my young friend Muda, a Malaysian in the US, tagged me to his post about the ringgit doing 3.8997 against the greenback on Wednesday. "Let's go @anwaribrahim_my. Next stop 3.75." 

The ringgit has seen a strong resurgence, indeed, emerging as one of Asia's best-performing currencies this year, driven by robust economic fundamentals, rising tech exports, and investor confidence. 

It had not smelled 3.80 in a decade. Some predicted it never would. 

"3.80 is a magical number. Tun Mahathir pegged the ringgit at 3.80 against the greenback the same day he sacked Anwar Ibrahim in 98," I replied to Muda. 

He was probably too young to have any memory of that tumultuous time. 

It was September 2 1998, the height of the Asian Financial Crisis. Mahathir Mohamad, the PM then, was facing mounting pressue to step down. His couterparts in Thailand and Indonesia had already subscribed to IMF's rescue plan. 

But instead of "succumbing", Mahathir decided to go rogue by pegging the ringgit and enforcing other capital controls. He also sacked his deputy, who was proving to be a major threat. Anwar, also Finance Minister, was a strong advocate of IMF's remedy for Malaysia and the region. His sin, however, was for implying that Mahathir was the reason behind the deep-rooted corruption, cronyism and nepotism responsible for the country's vulnerability during the crisis. 

I was the Editor of Business Times, Malaysia's only financial daily at the time. I remember wanting to lead the next day's edition with the sacking but Kadir Jasin, the Group Editor In Chief, said BT should go with pegging and capital controls. Both were sensational. 

The sacking was just a start. Anwar was later tried for sodomy and corruption. He was detained without trial under the Internal Securities Act and then a total of 11 years behind bars. 

The peg was lifted in 2005. Anwar was kept in jail, on and off, until his royal pardon in 2018.

Today, 28 years on, Anwar is the Prime Minister after winning the 2022 General Election, the same one that saw Mahathir, now 100, lose badly (his first election defeat in 53 years!).

The ringgit was never the same after the Asian Financial Crisis. After the peg was removed in 2005, the best it did was 3.16. In 2015 when the 1MDB shit hit the fan, it fell to historical lows. The last time it tested 3.80 was in 2015.. By the time Mahathir ended his ill-fated second tour as PM in 2020, the ringgit stayed down around 4.80. 

When Anwar became PM on 24 Nov 2022, the ringgit surged by 1.8 percent, it's largest single-day gain since March 2016. The next day it improved further to 4.45 vs dollar. But analysts were not impressed. A flash in the pan. Many predicted the currency would remain weak. 

Dr Sailesh K. Jha, RHB Bank's group chief economist and head of financial market research, was just one of them: "Our year-end target is 4.6, and the first half of next year (2023), we're at 4.7 to 4.8. So there's been no major changes in our currency view." 

Fast forward to the start of 2026, analysts remained diffident. The Edge spoke to two of them on Jan 8. While Mizuho Research said the Malaysian currency could breach the 4.00 threshold in the second quarter, it's average forecast for the year was about 4.015, "with the ringgit spending most of 2026 knocking on the door of 4.00."

UOB Global Economics and Markets was even more cautious. Despite Malaysia's "remarkable fundamentals", its FX Strategist Peter Chia saw the ringgit as somewhat overbought. "We are a little more cautious about projecting strength beyond the 4.00 level at this point in time. Our forecast is for the ringgit to stay around four." 

The ringgit had other ideas. Last Friday it closed 3.9030 against the USD. Over the past month, MYR has strengthened 3.55 per cent and over the last one year, it is up by nearly 12 per cent. 

Robust economic performance, rising exports, investor confidence. 

Still, there's a lesson we should learn from those faithless analysts (and from the Asian Financial Crisis, too, for that matter): We must remain cautious and translate that caution into vigilance. The good work of the last year, especially, must continue. The fight against the corrupt cannot falter. 

We have seen how fragile currencies and economies, including our own, can be.  Get the people to take to the streets, disseminate fake information and alarming news, undermine institutions like the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, and create political instability. 

Already we are seeing this happening: frustrated politicians promoting havoc, mad mob cheering on people who openly admit to giving bribes, the rich corrupt (under MACC investigation) engaging foreign agents to carry out economic sabotage. 

It does not take much to spook investors. 

What the pork!?

Feb 17: Did you know that it is illegal to bring in pork and pork-based products into Malaysia at the KL International Airport? 

Well, up till yesterday we were ignorant. So when pre-landing announcement on flight MH0749 from Danang said so, we looked at each other,  startled. 

Since when? 

The last time we came back through KLIA was a month ago, from a mountaineering trip in Nepal. We were flying  Batik Air and there was no such announcement. As usual, passengers were reminded that Malaysia had tough laws on smuggling of illicit drugs. The death penalty awaits anyone convicted.

On Malaysia Airlines flight back yesterday, passengers were told that besides illicit drugs, the Malaysian government bars the importation of pork (khinzir was used in the Malay announcement) and pork-based products. If you are carrying any, do get rid of them at "quarantine bins" designated along the way to the airport Customs and. Immigration point. Failure to do so could get you in real trouble. You could be fined up to RM100, 000 in fine or jailed six months, or even both. 

We consider ourselves quite the seasoned travellers so not knowing this prohibition on pork and pork-based products had left us stumped and sheepish. When did this new law come into effect? 

A quick check with Google confirms that Malaysia staeted strictly prohibiting the import of pork and pork-based products from several countries (including 

China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Vietnam) in September 2018 due to the African Swine Fever. 

It was supposed to be a temporary measure but in May 2024 local newspaper The Sun reported that the Malaysian government was maintaining the ban due to health concerns. 

The Malaysian government issued the import ban through the Veterinary Services and Customs departments, in accordance with the Malaysian Quarantine and Inspection Services Act 2011 (Act 728).

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported the ASF outbreak in Malaysia in October 2023. The first confirmed ASF case was in February 2021 in Sabah, with subsequent cases in the peninsula in December the same year. In July 2023, ASF was detected in wild boars in Perak, followed by outbreaks on swine farms in Perak and Kedah in October.

Well, it is good to know that the recent bruhaha over pig farming in Selangor has nothing to do with the pork ban in KLIA. The Sultan of Selangor, irked by recent approvals for large-scale pig-farming activities in his state, suggested that those in the porky business import instead. 

In any case, there won't ever be a shortage of pork. That much the DAP chief Anthony Loke has assured pork lovers following the Selangor pig-farming controversy. "Chinese New Year will not feel like Chinese New Year without roast pig,” he guaranteed in There will be roast pigs every CNY.

I've always associated Chinese New Year with fireworks and oranges and, more importantly, us Malaysians from different races and religions, pork eaters and not, celebrating together and wishing prosperity and harmony. And in that spirit, I wish all my readers, Gong Xi Fa Cai. May the Lunar Year of the Horse beings prosperity and lifelong health and peace to all of us.

Next time anyone’s unhappy with what a journalist writes, just pay someone to beat up the journalist

WwwwThe police made o feetne swift arrest (which was gread) but one senior cop made a qytueer remark that the attack was “personal”. That cop never alrepeated it ut neither did there

U b5456890ack uo hisi totyheory or speculation w credible evidence. 5,

Today, after nearly to months, a magistrate sentenced the one culprit the police nabbed to a RM2000 fine. No jail. The other two suspects were never brought to justice.

The message, if you ask me, is clearly this: If you’re not happy with what a journalist write, dont bother trying to give your side of the story or engage a PR to set the record straight. Just hire some goons to beach at up there journalist, take a video of the attack, make it seem like it was a mistaken identity. The life of a journalist is that cheap.

Man fined RM2,000 for assaulting sports journo in Bangsar d

Man fined RM2,000 for assaulting sports journo

 in Bangsar

R Krishnan previously pleaded guilty to attacking sports journalist Haresh Deol in Bangsar on Nov 25 last year.

R Krishnan was charged under Section 323 of the Penal Code with voluntarily causing hurt, which carries a jail term of up to one year, a fine of up to RM2,000 or both upon conviction.

KUALA LUMPUR:

 A 37-year-old man was fined RM2,000 by the magistrates’ court here today for attacking sports journalist Haresh Deol in Bangsar last November.

Magistrate Aina Azahra Arifin handed down the sentence on R Krishnan, who pleaded guilty on Nov 28 to charges of assaulting Haresh.

Krishnan, along with an unnamed suspect still at large, committed the offence outside the Tanjung Balai Group premises at Jalan Telawi 3 on Nov 25.

The charge was framed under Section 323 of the Penal Code for voluntarily causing hurt, which carries a jail term of up to one year, a fine of up to RM2,000 or both, upon conviction.

Meanwhile, Haresh said the case was not over yet as another suspect remained at large and the investigation was ongoing.

“I will leave it to the police. If they call me again after the other suspect is arrested, I will cooperate,” he added.

Haresh, a senior journalist and co-founder of the Twentytwo13 news website, previously rejected claims by the police that the attack was motivated by a “personal issue”.